11 minutes. That’s how long Henri Veesaar sat on the bench in North Carolina’s 67-63 win over Clemson on Tuesday night. And those 11 minutes showed just how fragile North Carolina is without Caleb Wilson healthy.
Veesaar’s on/off numbers have been staggering all season. His combination of rim protection on defense and floor spacing on the other end of the floor makes him a uniquely valuable player. However, against Clemson, and without Wilson available to keep the Tar Heels afloat, UNC bottomed out in those 11 minutes without Veesaar. When the 7-foot center sat on Tuesday night, Clemson outscored UNC by 15 points (28-13). UNC posted a -80.1 net rating without Veesaar, were on pace for 69.4 points per 100 possessions, down from their season-long offensive rating of 119.3, and shot 23.1 percent from the field with a 30.8 percent effective field goal percentage.
Simply put, without Veesaar, UNC could not score, and could not stop Clemson from scoring. Yet, with Veesaar on the floor for 29 minutes, UNC outscored Clemson 54-35. Basically, the game should have been a convincing win if the Heels could have even just held serve without Veesaar, and Wilson, for much of the season, has been the player who enables them to do that.
Clemson buried UNC in Veesaar’s bench minutes
Wilson is reportedly back to practice and has his cast off after suffering a fracture in his right hand against Miami on February 10. However, it’s unclear if he’s going to be able to return against No. 1 Duke on Saturday for the regular season finale in Durham. It may not even be in Hubert Davis’s best interest to rush him back for that one ahead of the ACC Tournament and March Madness. Yet, without him, the Heels may not stand a chance in the rematch against the Blue Devils.
Wilson did more than keep UNC afloat in Veesaar’s bench minutes vs. Duke
In the first meeting in Chapel Hill, Wilson put on a ridiculous display of shot-making out of the post and in isolation against whichever defender Jon Scheyer decided to throw at him. Wilson was too fast for Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba one-on-one, and could shoot over 6-foot-9 Maliq Brown with relative ease consider the Duke forward’s defensive prowess.
Wilson finished the game with 23 points on 8-12 shooting from the field, and more importantly, in the five minutes that Veesaar was on the bench, he helped UNC to outscore Duke by eight points. That won’t be possible if Wilson sits out on Saturday against the tallest team in the country.
For the season, UNC has a -9.3 net rating with Veesaar off the floor (per CBBanalytics.com). That’s not good, but it’s much better than the -13.4 net rating in the 181 minutes with both Veesaar and Wilson sidelined.
UNC needs Wilson back; that’s obvious. But his presence will be even more critical in the context of the postseason when games are played on back-to-back days or with just one day of rest in the NCAA Tournament because it won’t be easy for Veesaar to log 35+ minutes every night.
Tuesday night displayed just how fragile the Tar Heels are with Wilson out. They might break with him in Durham on Saturday, but if it gets Wilson closer to 100 percent for the postseason, UNC will be stronger for it.
