The North Carolina Tar Heels are heading into the 2026–27 college basketball season with something to prove. With new head coach Michael Malone leading the program, UNC is preparing for a campaign filled with uncertainty, opportunity, and the possibility of surprising its critics.
Preseason predictions have placed Duke at the top of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), while North Carolina is expected to compete among the teams chasing the conference leaders. Some projections have raised questions about whether the Tar Heels have enough continuity and depth to challenge for the ACC title in Malone’s first season.
But what if the predictions underestimate North Carolina?
The Tar Heels have a new coaching voice, a significantly rebuilt roster, experienced returning players, and a fan base expecting the program to compete at the highest level. Their preseason exhibition victory over USC has also provided an early reason for optimism.
Although one exhibition game cannot predict an entire season, it offered a glimpse of what UNC might become under Malone.
Could the Tar Heels shock the ACC, outperform their preseason projections, and emerge as one of the conference’s biggest surprises?
There are several reasons why North Carolina should not be counted out just yet.
1. Michael Malone Could Change UNC’s Trajectory
One of the biggest storylines surrounding North Carolina is the arrival of Michael Malone.
Malone became UNC’s head coach in April 2026 after building an extensive coaching career in professional basketball. His most significant achievement came with the Denver Nuggets, whom he guided to the 2023 NBA championship.
Now, he faces a different challenge: transforming a college basketball roster and establishing a winning culture at one of the sport’s most recognizable programs.
Malone’s experience coaching elite players and preparing teams for high-pressure situations could prove valuable. He understands the importance of defensive discipline, offensive execution, player accountability, and making adjustments when an opponent changes its strategy.
However, the transition to college basketball will require patience.
Unlike the NBA, college programs must deal with frequent roster turnover, recruiting challenges, and the difficulty of bringing together players with different levels of experience. Malone must establish his preferred system while ensuring that his players understand their responsibilities.
The encouraging part is that North Carolina has the resources and basketball tradition to support an ambitious rebuild.
The Tar Heels finished the 2025–26 season with a 24–9 record, including a 12–6 mark in ACC play. They tied for fourth in the conference and went undefeated at home, finishing 18–0 at the Smith Center. �
University of North Carolina Athletics
That gives Malone a foundation to build upon, even though the roster has changed significantly.
If he can develop a clear identity, improve the team’s defensive consistency, and get his players comfortable in his offensive system, UNC could become much more dangerous than preseason projections suggest.
The key will be how quickly the team adapts.
2. UNC’s Preseason Victory Over USC Provides Encouragement
North Carolina gave its supporters an early reason to be excited when the Tar Heels defeated USC 88–70 in an exhibition game on October 9.
The victory was significant because it offered the first public look at Malone’s team in game conditions.
USC initially competed strongly, and the contest featured seven ties and 14 lead changes. North Carolina eventually took control with a 12–0 run midway through the second half, creating separation and finishing with an 18-point victory. �
USC Athletics
One of the biggest positives was UNC’s rebounding.
The Tar Heels collected 47 rebounds compared with USC’s 33, helping them generate additional possessions and control an important part of the game. North Carolina also shot approximately 44% from the field, compared with USC’s 36%. �
USC Athletics
Jarin Stevenson delivered an especially impressive performance, recording 25 points and 10 rebounds. Isaiah Denis also contributed 14 points, giving the team production from players returning to the program. �
Tar Heel Blog
These performances matter because returning players can provide stability while newcomers learn their roles.
Nevertheless, there are reasons to remain cautious. UNC committed 18 turnovers, allowing USC to score 24 points from those mistakes. That is an area Malone will need to address before the regular season begins. �
USC Athletics
The victory should not be interpreted as proof that UNC is ready to defeat every major ACC opponent. Exhibition basketball has different stakes from conference competition.
Still, the performance demonstrated that the Tar Heels could respond to adversity, improve defensively, and produce an effective second-half performance.
If they build on those positives while reducing turnovers, they could become a more complete team as the season progresses.
3. Jarin Stevenson Could Become a Major Difference-Maker
Every team that exceeds expectations usually has players who step into larger roles.
For North Carolina, Jarin Stevenson is one of the players worth watching closely.
Stevenson returns after averaging 8.1 points per game during the previous season and making 25 starts. He is also one of the few returning players with substantial experience in the program. �
USC Athletics
His experience could be particularly important during Malone’s first season.
With so many new players arriving, UNC needs returning contributors who understand the demands of the program and can help establish consistency. Stevenson has an opportunity to provide that stability while expanding his influence on the court.
His performance against USC was an encouraging sign.
Scoring 25 points and collecting 10 rebounds demonstrated the type of production that could make him an important part of UNC’s plans. However, maintaining that level throughout the regular season will be the real challenge.
The Tar Heels will need more than one productive player.
Stevenson’s development could become even more valuable if the team’s newcomers contribute consistently and create additional scoring opportunities. A balanced offense would make it harder for opposing defenses to focus on a single player.
If Stevenson continues to develop, UNC could receive an important boost from a player who already understands the program.
4. The New Roster Could Give Malone More Options
North Carolina has undergone significant roster changes ahead of the 2026–27 campaign.
The program retained five players from last season while adding 11 newcomers, including four freshmen, six college transfers, and one international player. �
USC Athletics
That amount of turnover creates both opportunities and challenges.
On one hand, Malone has several new players who could bring different skills, fresh energy, and alternative ways to attack opposing defenses.
On the other hand, a rebuilt roster must learn to play together. Players need time to develop chemistry, understand their teammates’ tendencies, and become comfortable with the coaching staff’s expectations.
One of the most interesting additions is Neoklis Avdalas, who transferred from Virginia Tech after averaging 12.1 points and 4.6 assists per game. His combination of scoring and playmaking could help UNC create opportunities for teammates. �
USC Athletics
The Tar Heels also added Terrence Brown and Matt Able, giving Malone further options as he develops his backcourt rotation. �
CBS Sports
The challenge is determining which combinations work best.
Malone’s willingness to experiment during the USC exhibition suggested that he was still evaluating the available options. North Carolina reportedly used 24 different five-player combinations during that game. �
Keeping It Heel
While such experimentation can make it difficult to identify an immediate starting lineup, it also gives the coaching staff opportunities to discover combinations that might not have been obvious before the season.
If Malone finds a dependable rotation and his players embrace their roles, the Tar Heels could develop the depth and flexibility needed to challenge stronger opponents.
5. Why the ACC Should Not Underestimate North Carolina
Duke remains the team to beat in many preseason predictions, but the ACC race is unlikely to be decided by reputation alone.
Virginia, Louisville, Miami, and North Carolina are among the programs expected to compete for strong conference finishes.
A preseason prediction published by the USA TODAY Network on October 5 placed Duke first, Virginia second, Louisville third, Miami fourth, and UNC fifth. �
Tar Heel Blog
Those projections give North Carolina a clear target.
To outperform expectations, the Tar Heels must demonstrate that they can compete consistently against the teams projected above them. Winning a few high-profile games would generate excitement, but a strong conference finish requires sustained performance.
Road games will be especially important.
The Smith Center has already proved to be a strong environment for North Carolina, but the Tar Heels will need to perform away from home as well. Difficult road contests can test a team’s composure, communication, and ability to execute under pressure.
UNC must also avoid unnecessary turnovers, defend without giving away easy opportunities, and rebound effectively against physical opponents.
These fundamentals may not always generate headlines, but they frequently determine the outcome of close games.
If the Tar Heels can win the games they are expected to win and produce a few significant upsets, they could finish above their preseason position.
And if Malone’s system begins to click at the right time, the team could become even more dangerous as the season progresses.
6. My Prediction: UNC Could Finish Higher Than Expected
My prediction is that North Carolina has a realistic chance of exceeding its preseason expectations, although challenging for the ACC championship will require substantial improvement and consistency.
I would project the Tar Heels to finish between third and fifth in the ACC, with a top-three finish representing an encouraging outcome for Malone’s first season.
That is a prediction, not a guaranteed result.
Duke enters the season with considerable expectations, while Virginia and Louisville are also projected to compete near the top. North Carolina must prove that its rebuilt roster can perform consistently against those teams.
Three factors will largely determine how successful UNC becomes:
Guard play: The Tar Heels need reliable ball-handling, efficient decision-making, and players who can create scoring opportunities when the offense stalls.
Defensive consistency: Better communication, rebounding, and disciplined rotations could help UNC win games even when its shooting is inconsistent.
Roster chemistry: Malone must identify the right combinations and ensure that the newcomers understand their roles.
If those elements come together, North Carolina could challenge the teams currently projected to finish ahead of it.
The most important objective is not to win the preseason debate. It is to improve from game to game and enter ACC competition with confidence.
Final Verdict: The Tar Heels Have Something to Prove
North Carolina enters the 2026–27 season with questions to answer, but also with a genuine opportunity to surprise its critics.
Michael Malone’s arrival has created a new chapter for the program. The rebuilt roster brings uncertainty, yet it also gives the coaching staff an opportunity to establish a different identity and develop players who could become important contributors.
The victory over USC was an encouraging first step, particularly because UNC demonstrated its rebounding strength and produced a strong second-half performance. The turnovers, however, showed that there is still work to do.
Ultimately, the Tar Heels’ success will depend on how quickly they develop chemistry, how effectively Malone manages the rotation, and whether the team can execute against the ACC’s strongest opponents.
Can UNC shock the ACC? Absolutely—but the Tar Heels must prove they can sustain their best basketball beyond the preseason.
If the newcomers settle into their roles, Stevenson continues to contribute, and Malone successfully implements his system, North Carolina could become one of the conference’s most interesting teams to watch.
