ARLINGTON – No one is giving the Dallas Cowboys much hope of beating the Houston Texans here at AT&T Stadium on “Monday Night Football,” but this is the NFL, so nothing is a given. Right? Despite the Cowboys being one of the worst teams in football over the last couple of weeks, there is still an avenue that sees Mike McCarthy’s team cause an upset win over the Texans. But they have to do a lot of things right to even be in the contest (Houston is a 7.5-point favorite), and we will outline five here that are non-negotiable for McCarthy’s team if they have any chance at securing a big upset win.
With the guidance of our Adam Schultz, Let’s get to it.
1. Discipline to Zero Turnovers: If last week’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles showed us anything, it’s that when Dallas doesn’t turn the ball over, it stays in games. But when it does, it’s one-way traffic to a curb-stomping.
The offense can’t have one turnover against Houston, let alone five, and with a defense that has snagged 15 in five games, including five against the Detroit Lions, taking care of the ball is of the highest priority. Doing that will go a long way to this remaining a contest and not yet another blowout.
2. Establish 80-Percent Rico: Again, last week saw what the offense with Cooper Rush “could be” when Rico Dowdle was rolling. The running back totaled 50 yards from 10 carries with the offense stringing together drives of 10 and 15 plays. Now the bonafide starter, against a Texans defense that allows 113.3 rush yards per game, if the Cowboys can get close to that, then this might be a close enough contest.
Could Rico rush Dallas to a win with McCarthy’s “perfect” 22 to 25 attempts? Know this: Rico has handled 80 percent of Dallas’ backfield touches in the past two weeks … while Houston gives up 4.5 yards per carry (11th in the NFL) and the league’s third-highest rate of 15-yard runs. Touches. And a couple of splash plays. Maybe?
3. Stop Joe Mixon’s 24: Dallas did a relatively good job of curtailing Saquon Barkley (14 carries, 66 yards), and Mike Zimmer’s defense will need to do something similar against Joe Mixon. While the Texans only average 119.4 rush yards per game (ranks 18th), when Mixon plays, he racks up yards, surpassing 100 rush yards in five of his seven games. Mixon’s magic touch number seems to be 24. The Cowboys can’t allow the Texans to run the ball down their throat.
4. Make most of Upside-Down Opportunities: This goes for both sides of the ball, as Dallas presently an obscene minus-10 on the takeaway chart. The Cowboys got into the red zone last time against the Eagles but shot themselves in the foot and were 0-2. Conversely, the defense, who only has seven takeaways for the year, when there is a chance to snag an interception or a strip sack (Texans gave up 35 sacks, third-most in football), then that opportunity must be taken.
The Cowboys were in the game against the Eagles, but failing to take their opportunities led to another blowout loss. Be opportunistic, Dallas.
5. Get Cooper Rush in Rhythm vs. Texans Subtle Weakness: It was painful watching the Cowboys offense against the Eagles, with Rush dinking and ducking his way to 45 passing yards. Against the Texans, the offense must find a way to get the ball down the field, and we aren’t talking 40+ yard throws, but more than the few yards per attempt Rush managed last week.
Throws that allow his playmakers to get out in space and turn upfield for extra yards will take the pressure off Rush having to do it all himself through the air. Make it an extension of the run game. It was death by a thousand cuts against the Eagles. Against the Texans, the Cowboys must move the ball down the field without just dinking and dunking … though it is worth noting that Houston might have some vulnerability against tight ends. In recent games, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft and Hunter Henry all have TDs against the Texans. So maybe it’s Jake Ferguson’s turn. Rush got his mulligan last week; now is the time to let it loose. After all, what’s there to lose? So … the Fish prediction? Texans 24, Cowboys 13.
