The Patriots and Bears seem to have done well by hiring Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson, respectively. The Cowboys? Not so much.
This always looked like a bad year to be in the market for a new NFL coach. And after a series of bizarre events, meandering searches and unexpected hires, it’s fair to wonder how many of the six teams that have hired new coaches actually made an upgrade — and whether their owners will be patient enough for it to matter.
These teams should have been forewarned; many experienced executives who surveilled the field of likely — and even not-so-likely — potential candidates had opined that years of extreme churn had left the market relatively barren. Things would be even trickier if owners insisted on prizing one particular sort of candidate — say, younger quarterback-coach types with a link to Rams Coach Sean McVay. Turns out that archetype was, in fact, still en vogue, and the shortage of even quasi-qualified candidates from that lineage led owners to expose themselves throughout the month
It struck many in and around the NFL as odd that Bill Belichick apparently met nothing but closed doors, yet 73-year-old Pete Carroll popped up from a year seemingly spent underground, at least from a football perspective, and immediately found work — with Tom Brady of all people. Similarly, perpetually climbing 30-something Liam Coen convinced Jaguars owner Shahid Khan to blow up his front office while scouting college all-star games, just for the chance to possibly secure his services.
Then again, I suppose these hires help explain why so many franchises stay so bad for so long. Here’s how some general managers and executives sized up this hiring cycle, in rough order of most likely to least likely to work.
The New Orleans Saints’ job, the seventh opening of this cycle, is still vacant, with former Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy viewed as the potential default should management not want to risk gambling on a less proven commodity).
New England Patriots (Mike Vrabel)
They did an unconvincing job of pretending to be interested in anyone other than Mike Vrabel, but they got their guy. And it’s hard to argue, based on his résumé, age and ties to that franchise, that he wasn’t the right target for owner Robert Kraft to lock in on.
They made a mockery of the Rooney Rule, but at least they did it for Vrabel, and they got him,” said one general manager, who is not permitted to speak publicly about other teams’ personnel. “They weren’t the only ones, and they got the best guy out there.”
Chicago Bears (Ben Johnson)
You never know if someone can be an NFL coach until he gets the chance. Of the potential first-timers, the former Lions offensive coordinator clearly stood out, and people I trust in the industry have been gushing about his potential in a top job for years. He had to take the leap, and by going to Chicago, Johnson stays in a division he knows very well.
It’s hardly a slam dunk — “I still can’t believe [Bears GM Ryan Poles] still has a job there,” another GM said — and it can be tricky when a GM enters a season on the hot seat while the coach is just figuring out how to do the job. But the Bears got a candidate other owners could not land in the past, and his ability to scheme up an offense is legit.
Las Vegas Raiders (Pete Carroll)
Carroll will have a team that is prepared and energetic, and they won’t be getting blown out of games. There will be a measure of respectability from his presence … but this is essentially a rebuilding team with a 73-year-old coach. “I love Pete, and we all know how well he can do the job,” the first GM said. “But his [defensive] scheme got pretty stale in Seattle and is he going to reinvent himself now? It’s a stopgap move, right? Two, three years tops?”
If the Raiders can’t get in position to get one of the top two quarterbacks in this draft — time is of the essence — the risks of choosing Carroll get even steeper.
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New York Jets (Aaron Glenn)
The former Lions defensive coordinator was viewed by many as the top first-time coaching candidate on the defensive side of the ball. His ties to the Jets always made him one of the team’s top choices, as I wrote weeks ago. But Woody Johnson is still the owner, the GM search was odd, and dysfunction is always lurking in the franchise’s headquarters in Florham Park, New Jersey. Glenn’s defense collapsing in the playoffs two straight years gave pause to some. And his seems like a profile — a former standout NFL defensive back who paid his dues as an assistant coach — that Johnson tried before, only to dismantle that attempt without giving the coach a quarterback he could win with.
It does feel a lot like the Todd Bowles hire,” said NFL analyst Brian Baldinger, when I broached the similarities with him. The fact the Jets haven’t yet publicly disavowed Aaron Rodgers probably tells us all we need to know about anything changing at the top.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Liam Coen)
Coen’s ambition is being viewed by some as a bit too blind, and a possible red flag. That it took the franchise this long to finally fire general manager Trent Baalke — whom Coen and other candidates had no intention of working with — speaks volumes about Khan’s lingering deficiencies as an owner. The hiring process was laughed at in other corridors.
He was going to hire [former Jets coach Robert] Saleh if Coen didn’t take it,” the first GM said. “How crazy is that?” Just because Coen learned from McVay doesn’t mean he can lead 53 men. Oh, it’s also his sixth different job in the past six years, and he’s never stayed anywhere for more than three seasons in his 15-year coaching career. “You know I’m old school,” said one longtime executive who has hired many head coaches, “but he can’t stay anywhere for more than one year, man. That’s a bad sign.”
Dallas Cowboys (Brian Schottenheimer)
Jerry Jones basically eschewing a search and just giving the job to out-of-demand offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is, in many ways, a quintessential move for this GM/owner. “He’s telling you he doesn’t value the head coaching position,” the first GM said. “It doesn’t really matter to him. He doesn’t want to pay a coach, because he doesn’t want the coach to have any voice or any power. Jerry is in charge, and he’s going to do whatever he wants picking the players and doing the contracts.”
Jones couldn’t even release a coherent public statement explaining the hire. “Jerry punted on hiring a coach,” the executive said. “He never thought he was losing McCarthy in the first place.”
New Orleans Saints (TBD)
Their declining roster, salary cap misery and financial obligations to quarterback Derek Carr, along with the specter of top exec Mickey Loomis’s chummy relationship with ownership despite years of declining work, cast a shadow over their search. Numerous candidates have rebuffed their advances. They still need to tear down this sagging roster before even attempting to build it back up. Good luck to whomever eventually says yes.
