The games are done.
Auburn and Duke have finished their respective regular seasons and conference tournaments, meaning their resumes are officially set for the NCAA tournament selection show. The race for the No. 1 seed has long been between the Tigers and Blue Devils, and now the reveal is imminent.
Duke, unlike Auburn, capped off its regular season in style, winning the ACC tournament while going into March Madness on an 11-game winning streak. Auburn fell in the SEC tournament semifinals to Tennessee and the Tigers have lost three of their last four games.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s lead bracketologist, wrote before Auburn’s loss to Tennessee that the Tigers had the No. 1 seed locked up regardless of result, and those words didn’t change after the game. But with how both teams finished, the chatter has picked back up.
In Lunardi’s Sunday morning report, he wrote that “Auburn could be legitimately dropped from No. 1 overall, but I highly doubt the committee will.”With that said, here’s a final look at where each team stands ahead of the selection show:
Auburn’s resume
Record: 28-5
Conference record: 15-3 (Won regular season title)
Conference tournament finish: Lost in semifinals
NET ranking: 2
Quad I record: 16-5
Quad II record: 6-0
Quad III record: 2-0
Quad IV record: 4-0
KenPom strength of schedule ranking: 2
Duke’s resume
Record: 31-3
Conference record: 19-1 (Won regular season title)
Conference tournament finish: Champions
NET ranking: 1
Quad I record: 9-3
Quad II record: 7-0
Quad III record: 10-0
Quad IV record: 5-0
KenPom strength of schedule ranking: 56
Who the bracketologists say is No. 1
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi: Auburn
CBS’ Jerry Palm: Duke
On3’s James Fletcher III: AuburnThe case for Auburn
Despite another loss before Selection Sunday, Auburn’s case remains the same, and it’s still just as strong.
The Tigers have seven more Quad I wins than the Duke, and the 16 it has leads the country. If the criteria for seeding were how hot a team is going into the tournament, then maybe Auburn would be at risk of dropping. Fortunately for the Tigers, it isn’t.
Auburn’s overall body of work still stands out as the best in the country when looking at overall quality wins and strength of schedule. That should be enough to keep the Tigers at No. 1.
The case for Duke
While Auburn’s resume by all accounts still seems to have the edge, it’s inarguable that Duke has a case.
The Blue Devils have the best record in the country, and no one has been more efficient this season. They rank No. 1 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings, a mark they have held onto for most of the second half of the campaign.
Duke’s 38.15 KenPom net rating is the highest recorded since 1999. While it didn’t play the same level of competition as Auburn in conference play, Duke was dominant in almost every game. Auburn still has the edge, but Duke gave the selection committee something to consider.
