After drawing a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament despite winning the Big Ten Tournament on Sunday, Michigan men’s basketball head coach Dusty May said his team is only focused on what it can control.
Unfortunately for May and the Wolverines, they have no control over the history and narrative surrounding 5 versus 12 seed matchups in the tournament.
Michigan (25-9) opens at 10 p.m. Thursday against UC San Diego (30-4), which is riding the longest active win streak in the country at 15 games. The Wolverines knocked off three ranked teams in the conference tournament to claim its first title since 2018 but are only a slight 2 ½-point betting favorite against the Tritons, according to FanDuel.
Some experts and analysts quickly pointed to the matchup as a popular upset pick, and there is data to back it up. Last year, Grand Canyon and James Madison advanced to the second round as 12 seeds.
Since the tournament field expanded in 1985, 12 seeds are 55-101 in the first round. Not all their runs ended after their opening game either, with 22 reaching the Sweet 16. For comparison, 13 seeds are just 33-123 against 4 seeds in the first round.
In 33 of the last 39 tournaments, the 12 seed has won at least one game in the first round. In 2019, 2014 and 2013, three advanced to the second round.
This year could be conducive for more 12 versus 5 upsets, too. No. 12 seed Colorado State is a 2 ½-point favorite over 5 seed Memphis. Clemson is the heaviest favorite among 5 seeds with several top players back from last year’s team that reached the Elite Eight. The Tigers are laying 7 ½ points against McNeese, while 5 seed Oregon is a 6 ½-point favorite against Liberty.
What makes the Michigan-UC San Diego matchup intriguing is the Wolverines’ deficiencies this season could bode well for the Tritons.
Michigan ranks No. 336 nationally in turnovers per game, while UC San Diego is first in turnover margin. The Wolverines are No. 114 in made 3-pointers per game, and the Tritons are eighth.
Some felt the Wolverines were snubbed by not getting a 4 seed while the two teams they beat in the Big Ten semifinal and championship, Maryland and Wisconsin, drew a 4 and a 3 seed, respectively.
On paper, that means a tougher first-round matchup for May’s team.
I think we’ll go out there with a little bit of extra edge,” May said Sunday night. “But this team’s motivated intrinsically by the right things. So like I said, we control what we can control. We’re grateful to be a part of it and matchups and all those things are much more important than what number’s next to your name.”
