The selection committee has completed its task, and the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament is about to begin. With the field finalized after an exciting regular season, we are set to discover which teams will have a shot at a Cinderella story, which ones may derail your bracket, and which coaches might voice their dissatisfaction over their seedings. Who will emerge victorious from Atlanta and aim to cut down the nets in San Antonio this year? Let’s take a closer look at the intense South Regional and the potential contenders from one of the most challenging sections of the bracket.
Current Status of No. 1 Seed: Auburn Tigers
Bruce Pearl’s squad enters the tournament after losing three of their last four games but still secured the No. 1 overall seed due to an impressive 16–5 record in Quad 1 matchups. Leading the team is Johni Broome, a top contender for national player of the year, and they benefit from playing in familiar territory for their sub-regional games at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., and the regional final just over 90 minutes from their Atlanta campus. Excluding the last couple of weeks, this team was a clear favorite for the national title after winning the toughest league in the nation by several games during the regular season. While recent performances might make some hesitant about a team that excels on both offense and defense—ranking in the top 12 for both categories according to KenPom—the Tigers possess all the necessary traits to emerge as champions.
Challenging Draw: No. 5 Michigan Wolverines
Dusty May’s reward for winning the Big Ten tournament is a daunting No. 5-vs.-12 matchup against a UC San Diego team on a long winning streak. If the Wolverines can overcome the Big West champions, they will likely face a tough challenge against the No. 17 Texas A&M Aggies before potentially playing the No. 1 overall seed in their own territory. Despite exceeding expectations this season, the Wolverines may not have luck on their side in navigating this difficult path.
Potential Bracket-Buster: No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones have displayed moments of excellence this season, showcasing their potential as national title contenders; however, injuries have recently plagued the team. Coach T.J. Otzelberger announced on Sunday that starting guard Keshon Gilbert would remain sidelined after an injury, and Tamin Lipsey is also dealing with an issue from the Big 12 tournament. This could lead to an early exit for Iowa State, despite their higher seed.
Key Player to Watch: Johni Broome, Auburn Tigers
The Florida native has shown notable improvement each season, and as a fifth-year senior, he is poised to contend for multiple player of the year awards in the upcoming weeks. Broome is an exceptionally skilled big man, combining a clever post-up game with a surprisingly smooth outside shot for someone standing 6’10”. He serves as a crucial part of Auburn’s strategy, and if he plays at the level he has for much of this season, he may leave college with both individual accolades and a championship.
Noteworthy Matchup: No. 5 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons
The 5-vs.-12 matchups are often ripe for upsets, and this one stands out. The Wolverines are coming off a grueling Big Ten tournament, which could leave them fatigued for their Thursday game at altitude in Denver. Additionally, their ranking of 336th in turnovers per game is a concern facing a Tritons team that excels in forcing turnovers. This marks UCSD’s first appearance in the NCAA tournament after transitioning to Division I, and they will seek to make a statement by taking down a powerhouse like Michigan.
Projected Regional Finalists: No. 1 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
Sticking with chalk in the South region makes sense, as it is challenging to trust other contenders in this bracket. Both the Tigers and Spartans have reliable scorers, experienced players, and favorable paths to meet at State Farm Arena in the second weekend.
Pick to Win the Region: Auburn
Despite their recent struggles and the potential challenge of facing Louisville in Kentucky in the second round, Auburn remains a strong choice to win the South region. There is something special about this group this season, and Coach Pearl will have them well-prepared to succeed in the South Regional and secure a spot in Texas.
Best Bet: UC San Diego (+3.5) vs. Michigan
While the Wolverines could pose some challenges for the Tritons with their dual big lineup, this matchup is particularly difficult for Michigan after their Big Ten title win and subsequent travel to play a competitive West Coast team. UCSD has been a highlight in college basketball, reaching the NCAA tournament in their fourth season at this level and currently riding the nation’s longest winning streak at 15 games. With an exceptional defensive unit that ranks second in causing turnovers, the Tritons are well-suited to exploit Michigan’s weaknesses, especially considering the Wolverines’ poor turnover records. UCSD is likely to employ zone defense and force Michigan to execute in the half-court, while they capitalize on their strong perimeter shooting. Although the betting lines are tight, this matchup offers an excellent opportunity for the Tritons to score a mild upset.
