Caleb Wilson, the long and freakishly athletic forward, arrived in Chapel Hill with lottery pick expectations, the lone knock on the consensus top-10 prospect centering on his raw offensive game.
Through five games, the freshman phenom has somehow smashed through those projections, offering potential that’s reminiscent of some of the best Tar Heel rookies to play the game at Carolina.
In a college season that’s stocked full of elite freshmen across the country, Wilson has already forced his way into the conversation. ESPN’s most recent mock draft has him slotted as the No. 5 overall pick in next June’s NBA Draft. UNC has signed handfuls of five-star prospects over the past 25 years, although few have arrived even better than projected.
Wilson’s statistics alone are enough to elevate him into national relevance. He’s averaging a double-double with 20.6 points and 10 rebounds per game. He’s totaled 10 steals and nine blocks, while also posting a 13:8 assist-turnover ratio. The Atlanta product ranks sixth in the ACC in scoring average, fifth in rebounding and leads the league in field goal percentage (67.3).
His numbers pop even more under the metric microscope. He ranks nationally in 13 of KenPom’s statistical categories, ranging from offensive rating (135.8) to free throw rate (70.9) and defensive rebounding rate (24.8) to fouls drawn per 40 minutes (8.1). That type of spreadsheet stuffing has Wilson ranked as KenPom’s third-best overall player nationally, behind Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Purdue’s Braden Smith.
There are plenty of players who carve their niche into program lore by their work beyond the box score, whether through leadership or defensive effort or floor burns. The truly great players excel across the entire spectrum.
He’s scored 20 points or more in four games already, which leaves him 10 games shy of Hansbrough’s record for most 20-point games by a freshman and five games short of fourth place on the all-time list.
There’s still plenty of room for growth. UNC has played a weak schedule thus far – the Kansas game notwithstanding – and therefore Wilson has enjoyed a physical mismatch against most of his opponents in the post.
He’s shooting 69.2% from the free throw line, which is a positive sign for continued development of his shooting outside the circle. He also has 14 fouls through five games, which is largely a product of his aggression, although that will have to be checked as the Tar Heels enter more competitive waters in the coming weeks.
Those are minor matters in the grand scope of UNC’s season, which is likely to be Wilson’s lone year in Carolina blue. In today’s one-and-done world, there’s an apprehension that grows throughout each fan base that possesses such a talent.
Will the on-court production meet the projected potential before the season’s clock runs out?
For Wilson, that doesn’t seem to be a concern, which makes it easy to sit back and appreciate his vast athleticism and skill set, even this early in the season.
