Less than three weeks into the 2025–26 college basketball season, the national picture is already taking shape—and it’s not a flattering one for the SEC. After a record-setting 14 NCAA Tournament bids last season, the conference is off to a shaky start, signaling a potential power shift toward the Big Ten.
Kentucky’s 83–66 loss to No. 17 Michigan State in Tuesday’s Champions Classic was the latest blow to the SEC’s profile. Overall, the league is just 6–11 against other high-major opponents, while the Big Ten stands at 12–4 entering Wednesday’s matchups. Head-to-head, the Big Ten holds a 4–1 advantage over the SEC.
A year ago, the SEC’s dominant 59–19 high-major record propelled it to a historic Selection Sunday haul. Replicating that success now appears unlikely without a dramatic turnaround.
This is reflected in the newest CBS Sports Bracketology projections, where the Big Ten leads all conferences with 12 projected bids, including two No. 1 seeds in Purdue and Illinois.
Projected Bids by Conference (as of Nov. 18)
Big Ten (12)
Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa, USC, UCLA, Nebraska, Ohio State, Northwestern
SEC (11)
Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Missouri, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Texas
ACC (7)
Duke, Louisville, NC State, Clemson, Virginia, UNC, SMU
Big 12 (7)
Houston, Arizona, Iowa State, Texas Tech, BYU, Baylor, Kansas
Big East (3)
UConn, St. John’s, Creighton
WCC (2)
Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Mountain West (2)
Colorado State, Utah State
Top Seeds in the Latest Bracketology Projection
Seed Midwest East South West
1 Illinois Duke Houston Purdue
2 Arizona Tennessee UConn Gonzaga
3 Louisville Iowa State Vanderbilt Florida
4 Kentucky Texas Tech Wisconsin BYU
5 Michigan Indiana Alabama Michigan State
6 Iowa Georgia USC Auburn
7 Missouri St. John’s Baylor Kansas
8 Saint Mary’s UCLA NC State Ole Miss
9 Clemson Arkansas Ohio State Nebraska
10 Northwestern/Creighton Virginia North Carolina Texas
11 Liberty SMU/Colorado State Utah State Dayton
12 High Point Akron Yale South Florida
13 UNC Wilmington Bradley UC Irvine McNeese
14 Wright State St. Thomas Northern Colorado Arkansas State
15 Vermont Samford Utah Valley Florida Gulf Coast
16 Bethune-Cookman/Little Rock Colgate Marist Norfolk State/LIU
Bubble Watch
Last Four In
Northwestern
Creighton
SMU
Colorado State
First Four Out
Mississippi State
San Diego State
LSU
Cincinnati
Bracketology Takeaways
No. 1 Seeds Being Recalibrated
Duke and Purdue held firm as No. 1 seeds from opening day, but Michigan and St. John’s have slid. Michigan’s shaky wins over Wake Forest and TCU—neither projected tournament teams—hurt its case. St. John’s also drops after losing to Alabama and facing a Big East struggling badly at 3–9 in high-major matchups, limiting its future Quad 1 opportunities.
Indiana’s Rapid Rise
The Hoosiers are one of the season’s early surprises. Now 4–0 under first-year coach Darian DeVries, Indiana’s offense has transformed dramatically. After ranking 321st nationally in made threes last year, IU now hits 10.8 per game (44th nationally). A 100–77 blowout of Marquette highlights their jump to a projected No. 5 seed.
Vanderbilt Becoming a Model Darling
Vanderbilt’s high-powered offense—101.5 points per game—has the Commodores turning heads. Their best win so far: a 105–93 victory over UCF, who just upset Texas A&M. If the projections hold, this would be Vandy’s highest seed since 1993, marking a major step forward under coach Mark Byington.
