The college basketball season is barely underway, yet the buzz around March Madness is already reaching full volume. Feast Week brings high-profile matchups, early tests for national contenders, and—most importantly—a first real look at which programs might be able to turn preseason hype into postseason glory. As Thanksgiving arrives, two teams stand firmly atop the oddsboard: the veteran-loaded Purdue Boilermakers and the talent-rich Duke Blue Devils. But can either one live up to their billing as early favorites to cut down the nets in Indianapolis on April 6?
Below, we break down where the value sits, which teams deserve the preseason spotlight, and which sleeper could become the next Cinderella story that stuns the nation.
—
🔥 FAVORITE TO WIN IT ALL: PURDUE (+850)
It’s no surprise to see Purdue sitting as the +850 favorite to win the NCAA Tournament. Matt Painter’s group has returned nearly all of the core pieces that helped elevate the program to national title contention last season. A month into the year, the Boilermakers have already secured impressive résumé builders, including a ranked road win over Alabama and a championship run in their MTE highlighted by a victory against Texas Tech.
What truly separates Purdue is continuity. Seniors Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer, and Oscar Cluff form one of the most seasoned starting lineups in the country. The Boilermakers currently rank No. 1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and sit No. 2 in the KenPom overall rankings—a testament to their discipline, spacing, and execution on the offensive end. Smith, operating as the team’s lead guard, has been exceptional and is rated the No. 2 player in the country by EvanMiya’s BPR model.
But Purdue isn’t without flaws. Painter’s squad remains offense-oriented, and the defense has shown stretches of inconsistency that can be costly in a single-elimination tournament. Even more concerning, this team still lacks that one pure NBA-level scorer who can bail out a stagnant offense late in a tight March game. Without that dynamic shot-creator, relying on elite efficiency and ball movement becomes riskier as competition stiffens.
Purdue deserves the title of early favorite, but for bettors, the +850 price is good—not great—value this far out. If you’re backing veteran experience and high-powered scoring, Purdue is a logical play. But caution is warranted when defense and shot creation remain question marks.
—
😈 BEST BET TO WIN MARCH MADNESS: DUKE (+1000)
If you’re looking for the perfect blend of upside, talent, and two-way balance, look no further than the Duke Blue Devils. Freshman sensation Cameron Boozer has burst onto the college basketball scene as one of the most dominant first-year players in over a decade. At 6-foot-9 and 250 pounds, Boozer’s combination of power, finesse, and skill has made him an instant mismatch nightmare. He currently leads the Wooden Award odds race and ranks No. 1 in the country by EvanMiya’s BPR.
Even after losing five players—including Cooper Flagg—to the NBA, Duke looks every bit the national title contender. Sophomore guard Isaiah Evans can take over games with his explosive scoring, and big man Patrick Ngongba gives Duke an elite interior defender who sits No. 3 in the nation in DBPR. Add in the steady play of Caleb Foster and the emergence of freshmen Dame Sarr and Cayden Boozer, and Jon Scheyer suddenly has one of the deepest young cores in the country.
Most importantly, Duke is one of only two programs ranking top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency—an essential ingredient for championship success. If this young roster continues its upward trajectory, Duke’s ceiling might be the highest in the nation.
At +1000, a $10 bet returns $100 profit. Among all the contenders, the Blue Devils offer the best mix of value, talent, and long-term upside.
—
🐦 LONG SHOT VALUE PICK: KANSAS (+4000)
Seeing Kansas at +4000 feels strange, but that’s exactly what makes the Jayhawks a compelling buy-low long-shot contender. Early losses to North Carolina and Duke, combined with an injury to star freshman Darryn Peterson, have caused their odds to balloon from their opening +1600 number.
Peterson, a projected top-five NBA pick, was sensational in his first two collegiate games—averaging 21.5 points while shooting 60% from the field and 50% from three. His scoring ability changes everything for Kansas. Fortunately, his hamstring injury is not expected to be long-term, and Bill Self has remained optimistic, calling Peterson “week-to-week” and “hopeful” for a return soon.
Defensively, Kansas is already elite, currently ranking ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency thanks largely to dominant big man Flory Bidunga. Offense has been the challenge, but that equation changes the moment Peterson returns.
At +4000, with a healthy roster, Kansas becomes a legitimate title threat—and these odds are unlikely to stay this high for long. A $10 wager returns a massive $400 profit if the Jayhawks win their third title under Self.
For those wanting an even deeper long shot, Iowa at +10000 is also worth monitoring thanks to the rapid success of coach Ben McCollum and star guard Bennett Stirtz.
—
No matter where your early bets land, March Madness 2026 is already shaping up to be a wide-open, talent-loaded battle—and Thanksgiving is only the beginning.
