There’s no bubble talk in January 2026 for UNC basketball, which was on shaky ground up until Selection Sunday last season.
Ranked No. 15 in the USA TODAY Sports coaches poll and 14th in the AP Top 25, the Tar Heels (14-2, 2-1 ACC) have a solid resume and appear to be safely in the mix for a March Madness bid in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Coming off a three-point win against Wake Forest (10-7, 1-3), UNC is off to California for a pair of ACC road wins and quality opportunities against Stanford (13-4, 2-2) and California (13-4, 1-3). The Tar Heels tip off against Stanford on Wednesday, Jan. 14 (9 p.m., ACC Network), before heading to Berkeley to battle the Golden Bears (13-4, 1-3) on Saturday, Jan. 17 (4 p.m., ACC Network).
Here’s a breakdown of the latest bracketology and NCAA Tournament projections for the Tar Heels in mid-January.
UNC basketball NCAA Tournament resume
The Tar Heels are currently 23nd in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings. Through 16 games, UNC has a 3-2 record in Quadrant 1 games and a 11-0 record in Quadrants 2-4. With Stanford and Cal inside the top 75 of the NET, UNC has two Q1 opportunities this week in California. Breaking down the quadrant system, home games against teams ranked from No. 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked No. 1-50 and away games against opponents ranked No. 1-75 are considered Q1 chances.
Here are the latest NCAA Tournament projections as of Tuesday, Jan. 13.
UNC basketball NCAA tournament projections, latest bracketology
ESPN: Joe Lunardi has the Tar Heels listed as a No. 5 seed in the East Region, starting things off in Philadelphia against No. 12 seed Liberty.
CBS Sports: These projections have UNC as a No. 5 seed in the East Region.
USA TODAY: Projections were not available for this site.
On3: These projections have UNC as a No. 5 seed in the East Region, facing off against No. 12 seed Akron.
EvanMiya: The Tar Heels are 16th in resume quality, projected to be a No. 3-5 seed.
Torvik: According to Bart Torvik’s T-Ranketology Teamcast, UNC is projected to be a 6 seed.
Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Matrix formula considers the preeminent bracketology projections from across the web and averages them out to create a composite 68-team field. Of the 58 brackets tracked by the site, UNC is included on all of them, with most projections putting them in as a No. 4 or No. 5 seed.
