The Duke basketball program (16-1, 5-0 ACC) will close out its two-game West Coast road trip against Stanford (14-4, 3-2 ACC) on Saturday night. Duke previously took down California (13-5, 1-4 ACC) at Haas Pavilion 71-56 on Wednesday.
Since California and Stanford joined the league last year, only one team has come out of the two-game trip against both schools 2-0 (Wake Forest). No. 14 North Carolina (14-3, 2-2 ACC) already lost its chance after falling to the Cardinal 95-90 on Wednesday. UNC will face the Golden Bears on Saturday.
Stanford already owns wins over UNC and No. 20 Louisville (12-5, 2-3 ACC) through its first five league games. Kyle Smith’s team is inconsistent, but it has the personnel to get hot offensively in a hurry. After a great defensive performance against Cal, Duke will have to put that on display once again to take down Stanford and walk out of The Golden State unscathed.
Contain Ebuka Okorie
This one feels obvious, but it starts here. Not only has Okorie turned into one of the best freshmen in the country, but one of the best all-around scorers in the entire sport. Okorie currently leads the ACC in scoring average at 22.9 points per game, shooting 44.5% from the field, 32.6% from three-point range, and 81.5% from the free throw line.
Ebuka Okorie was ridiculous vs. UNC: 36 points on 12-20, 9 assists 1 TO. Obviously issues projecting a 6-2 scorer, 30% usage, subpar finishing #s. He’s still an offensive lightning rod with his dribble creativity, breakdown ability, float touch, shotmaking firepower…
The 6′ 2″ guard is coming off a 36-point outing against the Tar Heels on Wednesday, which set the Stanford single-game freshman scoring record. Okorie has tallied 10 games of 20 or more points scored and four of 30 or more through his first 16 games.
In Stanford’s three conference wins, Okorie is averaging a ridiculous 31.7 points per game. In its two losses, that number drops to just 10.5 points per game for Okorie. A win for Duke starts with limiting the star rookie’s opportunities.
Run Stanford off the Three-Point Line
Stanford has become a three-point-happy team through conference play, with much of the production coming from Okorie. But the Cardinal’s league wins have been reflective of their efficiency from beyond the arc.
The Cardinal have attempted 26.2 threes per game on average through its first five ACC games. In their three wins, they knocked them down at a 35-of-75 (46.7%) clip. In their two losses, they knocked down just 9-of-56 (16.1%).
Ebuka Okorie through 16 games of his college career
• 22.9 PPG
• 3.7 RPG
• 3.3 APG
• 14-4
This man was ranked 227th by Rivals in the class of 2025
Trust your work, not the opinions of others
Stanford shot 16-of-28 (57%) from the perimeter en route to scoring 95 points against the Tar Heels. Duke ranks 51st nationally at KenPom in three-point defense (30.6%), so keeping the Cardinal away from the three-point line will be crucial.
Win the Free Throw Battle
The free throw disparity feels like a regularity for success for Duke, mainly because of the inability to knock them down. Duke ranks second in the ACC in total free throw attempts (428), but ranks 230th at KenPom in free throw shooting percentage (70.8).
The only ACC squad that has attempted more free throws than the Blue Devils is Stanford (453). However, Duke has allowed the fewest free throw attempts to its opponents of any team in the conference (247), while the Cardinal have allowed the second-most (385).
In a game with two high-powered offenses where the Blue Devils are on the road, the free throw line could become the deciding factor. Especially if Stanford matches Duke in the sheer number of attempts, the Blue Devils will have to knock those free points down. Stanford has hit its free throws at a 72.4% clip so far this season.
