The No. 4-ranked Duke Blue Devils are preparing for potentially their biggest game of the entire 2025-26 college basketball season, as they will head to Chapel Hill to take on No. 14 North Carolina (18-4, 6-3 ACC) in the first edition of the best rivalry college basketball has to offer. Tip-off is set for 6:30 pm ET on Saturday night.
Duke boasts one of the best resumes in all of college hoops thus far through the season. The Blue Devils are currently No. 3 in the NCAA NET Rankings with a 9-1 record in Quadrant 1, a 13-1 record across the first two quadrants, an 11-0 record at home, and a 7-0 record in true road games.
Only Arizona, the No. 1 team in the AP Poll at 22-0 on the year, owns more Quadrant 1 victories than Duke.
Now, what makes this contest between the Blue Devils and Tar Heels different from any other recent year is how well the two squads match up on paper. Duke has made its money inside the paint and has been absolutely dominant in that area since conference play began.
Over the Blue Devils’ last five games, the Blue Devils have outscored their opponents 218-88 in the paint, a wild +130 advantage. Only one of Duke’s opponents over that stretch has eclipsed 20 points inside the paint.
However, the three-point line hasn’t been kind to the Blue Devils. Over that same stretch, Duke is just 29-of-97 (29.9%) from beyond the arc. Granted, it hasn’t really mattered given Duke’s mastery inside the paint. But that might be a challenge to continue against the Heels.
Jon Scheyer builds his rosters on defensive length and versatility, and it’s no different in 2025-26. Duke is the second-tallest team in the nation, according to KenPom. No team has been able to match the length at all positions on the floor that Duke boasts, but North Carolina is one of the few programs that can.
Duke’s Supporting Cast Needs To Step Up
UNC is the third-tallest team in the nation, according to KenPom, headlined by 7’0″ Henri Veesaar and 6’10” Caleb Wilson down low.
At KenPom, UNC ranks just 55th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, but ranks fifth nationally in opponent two-point shooting percentage (44.0).
Duke is a team that works inside-out, but it may need to utilize the three more often than it’s used to against the Heels with a dominant frontcourt down low for Hubert Davis.
