UNC basketball is an NCAA Tournament team, but its March Madness fortunes are likely tied to the health of its standout frontcourt players Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar.
Ranked No. 20 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and No. 16 in the AP Top 15, the Tar Heels (20-6, 8-5 ACC) have been without Wilson and Veesaar in back-to-back games. With that duo sidelined because of injuries, UNC was blitzed by rival N.C. State in a rout at Lenovo Center in Raleigh.
The Wolfpack (19-8, 10-4) needed a signature win and got it against the depleted Tar Heels, but UNC has five games remaining in the regular season to continue improving its resume.
Here’s a breakdown of the latest bracketology and NCAA Tournament projections for the Tar Heels, as of Feb. 18.
UNC basketball NCAA Tournament resume
The Tar Heels are currently 28th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings. Through 26 games, UNC has a 5-6 record in Quadrant 1 games and a 15-0 record in Quadrants 2-4. Four of the Tar Heels’ final five games are currently projected to be Q1 opportunities. Breaking down the quadrant system, home games against teams ranked from No. 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked No. 1-50 and away games against opponents ranked No. 1-75 are considered Q1 chances.
Here are the latest NCAA Tournament projections as of Wednesday, Feb. 18.
UNC basketball NCAA tournament projections, latest bracketology
ESPN: Prior to the N.C. State loss, Joe Lunardi had the Tar Heels listed as a No. 6 seed in the East Region, starting things off in Tampa, Fla., against No. 11 seed Santa Clara or No. 11 seed TCU.
CBS Sports: These projections have UNC as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, playing No. 11 seed Texas A&M.
USA TODAY: These projections have UNC as a No. 5 seed in the Midwest Region, facing No. 12 Yale in Philadelphia.
On3: These projections have UNC as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, facing off against No. 11 Ohio State or No. 11 UCF in Tampa.
FOX Sports: These projections have the Tar Heels as a No. 5 seed in the Midwest Region, facing No. 12 seed Yale.
EvanMiya: The Tar Heels are 24th in resume quality, projected to be a No. 6-8 seed.
Torvik: According to Bart Torvik’s T-Ranketology Teamcast, UNC is projected to be a 6 or 7 seed, trending more toward the 7 line of late.
Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Matrix formula considers the preeminent bracketology projections from across the web and averages them out to create a composite 68-team field. Of the 124 brackets tracked by the site, UNC is included on all of them, with most projections putting them in as a No. 5 or 6 seed. The Tar Heels are trending more toward the No. 6 line.
