Welcome to the Ballon d’Or, as it enters a brave new world.
After being shared by Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo for 13 of the past 16 years – eight for Messi, five for Ronaldo for those of you who like counting such things – their entries into the twilight of their careers in USA and Saudi Arabia respectively means that the most prestigious individual prize in football is heading into a new era. The question is: Who will be the first man to lead us there?
Kylian Mbappe had for so long been deemed the man most likely, but his Euro 2024 nightmare and final season disappointment at PSG after another Champions League failure means he’s unlikely to be anywhere near the podium on Monday night.
Instead, all eyes are on his new Real Madrid team-mate, Vinicius Jr, the quicksilver flying machine who fires Los Blancos to Spanish and European glory last term. He was ably assisted by England star Jude Bellingham, who has designs on the crown himself.
For the Premier League, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland is a contender, such has been his remarkable goalscoring record at the Etihad, but the man most likely may well be his clubmate Rodri, outstanding in City’s Premier League triumph and a key conductor in Spain’s Euro 2024 success.
With all that being said, we asked our Mirror Football writers for their 1-2-3 ahead of the ceremony, and to decide on their most likely winner too. Here’s what they came up with
Andy Dunn
1. Vinicius Jr
2. Rodri
3. Erling Haaland
The purists will always tell you that individual awards always show a profound bias towards attacking players with bags of flair – and they would be right. But that is how it should be.
Who gets the acclaim for a successful mega band? It’s not the highly-accomplished bass player who keeps the band in harmony, it’s the lead singer with his or her showmanship. And that is who sells records.
Rodri’s importance to his club and country cannot be overstated but Vinicius Junior has been THE dazzling talent in a star-studded, successful Real Madrid. Rodri makes you sit and nod your head in admiration of his relentless excellence, Vinicius Junior gets you out of your seat and that is why the Brazilian should get the nod.
Erling Haaland makes it onto the podium mainly for being a truly one-off type of prolific striker.
Neil McLeman
1. Rodri
2. Vinicius Jr
3. Lautaro Martinez
In a choice between recency bias and Premier League favouritism, I go for Manchester City ’s Rodri.
The Spaniard has been outstanding for club and country – and won the Player of the Tournament at Euro 2024 despite going off injured in the final
The Ballon D’Or is now awarded on performances during the previous European season – no longer the calendar year – so his injury this season, like Vinicius Jr’s Champions League hat-trick this week, is not strictly relevant. The Brazilian won La Liga and the Champions League last season but was suspended when his nation were knocked out of the Copa America by Uruguay
Ballon d’Or 2024 DECIDED: Winner and 1-2-3 picked for this year as award enters new era
The winner of the 2024 Ballon d’Or will be announced on Monday night, with Real Madrid superstar Vinicius Junior the favourite to take the crown, but Manchester City and Spain ace Rodri is also much-fancied after a stellar year
Thierry Henry makes Lionel Messi Ballon d’Or admission as he picks this year’s winner
Thierry Henry makes Lionel Messi Ballon d’Or admission as he picks this year’s winner
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Kylian Mbappe had for so long been deemed the man most likely, but his Euro 2024 nightmare and final season disappointment at PSG after another Champions League failure means he’s unlikely to be anywhere near the podium on Monday night.
Instead, all eyes are on his new Real Madrid team-mate, Vinicius Jr, the quicksilver flying machine who fires Los Blancos to Spanish and European glory last term. He was ably assisted by England star Jude Bellingham, who has designs on the crown himself.
For the Premier League, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland is a contender, such has been his remarkable goalscoring record at the Etihad, but the man most likely may well be his clubmate Rodri, outstanding in City’s Premier League triumph and a key conductor in Spain’s Euro 2024 success.
With all that being said, we asked our Mirror Football writers for their 1-2-3 ahead of the ceremony, and to decide on their most likely winner too. Here’s what they came up with…
Andy Dunn
1. Vinicius Jr
2. Rodri
3. Erling Haaland
The purists will always tell you that individual awards always show a profound bias towards attacking players with bags of flair – and they would be right. But that is how it should be.
Who gets the acclaim for a successful mega band? It’s not the highly-accomplished bass player who keeps the band in harmony, it’s the lead singer with his or her showmanship. And that is who sells records.
Rodri’s importance to his club and country cannot be overstated but Vinicius Junior has been THE dazzling talent in a star-studded, successful Real Madrid. Rodri makes you sit and nod your head in admiration of his relentless excellence, Vinicius Junior gets you out of your seat and that is why the Brazilian should get the nod.
Erling Haaland makes it onto the podium mainly for being a truly one-off type of prolific striker.
Vinicius Junior of Real Madrid celebrates with the Champions League trophy
Would Vinicius Jr be the right recipient of football’s biggest individual award? ( Image: Getty Images)
In a choice between recency bias and Premier League favouritism, I go for Manchester City ’s Rodri.
The Spaniard has been outstanding for club and country – and won the Player of the Tournament at Euro 2024 despite going off injured in the final
The Ballon D’Or is now awarded on performances during the previous European season – no longer the calendar year – so his injury this season, like Vinicius Jr’s Champions League hat-trick this week, is not strictly relevant. The Brazilian won La Liga and the Champions League last season but was suspended when his nation were knocked out of the Copa America by Uruguay.
My third choice shows personal bias for Inter Milan forward Martinez, who won the Serie A title and capocannoniere and then outshone Lionel Messi to claim the Copa America Golden Boot.
David Anderson
1. Rodri
2. Vinicius Jr
3. Erling Haaland
The Ballon d’Or doesn’t go for holding midfielders, but they should in Rodri’s case because he has been the best No.6 in the world.
Spain largely won Euro 2024 because of him, even if he was injured for the second half of the final against England, while he helped Manchester City win a fourth consecutive Premier League crown.
Vinicius Junior will probably win it and he ticks all the right boxes because he’s a forward, is Brazilian and plays for Real Madrid. But it’s a lot easier to win the Champions League and La Liga when your club has oodles of cash and can buy the best out there.
After them, Erling Haaland seems to get marked down because Norway don’t do much on the international stage and missed out on Euro 2024. But his goalscoring feats for City are simply staggering and his backheel volley against Sparta Prague redefined the word spectacular.
Daniel Orme
1. Jude Bellingham
2. Vinicius Jr
3. Rodri
Despite a tricky start to the new season, England and Real Madrid star Jude Bellingham has still shone extremely brightly. The midfielder scored an eye-watering 23 goals during his debut campaign in Spain – while his heroics saw Los Blancos claim another Champions League title.
And that’s not to mention his starring role as the Three Lions reached the Euros final. It’s still extremely close between him and Real Madrid teammate Vinicius Jr though – the Brazilian already having eight goals and seven assists this term.
Manchester City star Rodri should really be among the frontrunners but the long-term knee injury he suffered earlier this season might put paid to his hopes of claiming the trophy despite his stunning performances for both City and Pep Guardiola.
Alan Smith
1. Vinicius Jr
2. Rodri
3. Erling Haaland
It is a two-player race but the bias towards forward players means Vinicius Junior will get the nod over Rodri.
Vinicius was Real Madrid’s best player on their way to yet another Champions League win and is the most electric forward on the planet when at his best. Rodri was Manchester City’s most important figure on their way to another Premier League title – as evidenced by their record when suspended. And he was outstanding for Spain at the Euros too, even if he came off early in the final with injury.
The gap to third place is huge and it could be anyone. Harry Kane, as the Golden Shoe winner, would ordinarily be a contender but Bayern Munich ’s failure to win the Bundesliga and his disappointment at the Euros must discount him.
