Just one point separates the top three sides in the Premier League table with seven games of the season remaining, with an end-of-season playoff still a potential option.
The Premier League title could be settled by a playoff at the end of the season if two teams finish with identical records.
The sight of multiple teams on exactly level pegging after 38 games is statistically unlikely, but things could barely be tighter with seven games to go.- Arsenal and Liverpool are locked together on 71 points, with the Gunners boasting a better goal difference, while Manchester City sit just a point behind.
There have been tight title races in recent years, with Manchester City pipping Liverpool to the title by a point in 2018-19 and again in 2021-22. It was even closer in 2011-12, though, with City finishing level on points with Manchester United and claiming the title on goal difference.
This season could yet be over and done with before the final day if one team runs away with it. However, there are contingencies in place for a tight finish – right down to that playoff possibility.
If two teams end level on points at the top, the first differentiator will be goal difference. At the time of writing, Arsenal are out in front in that regard on +51, compared to +42 for Liverpool and +40 for City.
If teams finish level on points and goal difference, goals scored comes into play. That’s what happened back in 1988-89, with Arsenal pipping Liverpool with 73 goals scored to their rivals’ 65 after the sides met in what was essentially a straight shootout for the title on the final day of the season.
Arsenal hold the advantage on goals scored as things stand, with 75 from their 31 games so far. The next tie-breaker would be head-to-head records, another area where the Gunners are in charge and – crucially – one where their rivals are unable to make up any further ground.
The play-off option would only come into play, then, if it’s Liverpool and City locked together after the final game. That’s because both games between the sides this season ended in 1-1 draws, meaning the head-to-head records are identical.
In order for the teams to finish on level pegging, City would need to earn one more point than Liverpool before the end of the season. They’d also need to make up two goals on goal difference and one on goals scored – both much more realistic than they might usually be at this late stage of the season.
As outlined in the Premier League handbook, teams who can’t be separated by goal difference, goals scored or head-to-head records would be subject to a play-off. This would take place at a neutral venue, after the end of the season.
All three title contenders face potential banana skins between now and May. All three still have to face Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham, who are themselves battling for a Champions League spot, while Liverpool’s trip to Everton and Arsenal’s game at Manchester United are other standout fixtures.
For now, though, it’s Arsenal who have their fate in their hands as they look to make sure of the title. Saturday’s victory over Brighton, coupled with Liverpool’s draw at Man Utd on Sunday, means seven more wins for the Gunners would hand them the title unless Liverpool can do the same while making up their goal difference deficit.
“You have to earn the right to win in this league and the teams ask you a lot of questions,” Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta said after the weekend win.
“There are a lot of things you have to control to win a game in the Premier League away from home and the team seems to be controlling those moments much better and are comfortable in different stages of games when the teams are demanding other stuff. That is a big step as a team.”
