One manager linked with the Liverpool job excels above all others statistically.
Ruben Amorim has emerged as a top candidate to replace Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool, showing strong potential based on past achievements and data analytics.
Xabi Alonso, while a favorite among fans, may not be the best statistical replacement due to differences in style and experience.
Other managers who could be considered by Liverpool based on statistics include Bayern Munich’s Thomas Tuchel and Germany’s Julian Nagelsmann.
Liverpool fans were stunned to hear that Jurgen Klopp will be leaving the club at the end of the 2023/24 season. The German coach confirmed the news in an interview with the club in January, bringing an end to his nine-year spell at Anfield.
The club are now searching for the next manager to take over the hot seat at Anfield, with Xabi Alonso the ‘outstanding candidate for the job’ according to Dean Jones. But is he the most suitable coach to inherit the position in the summer?
A recent study by the BBC, along with Carteret Analytics, has assessed a series of possible candidates to see who would do the best job to take over from Klopp. The potential candidates are listed in order of their suitability according to Carteret’s analysis, which is based on a number of key metrics to give an objective sense of the strengths and weaknesses of each boss.
The findings are based on results that have been achieved over the last six seasons. However, they’re more gradually weighted towards recent seasons as well as the strength of the league. While many fans may be a little confused by the key metrics and what each row represents, the definition of each metric is as follows:
Objective achievement rating – Measures overall ability based on the premise that the primary objective is to win football matches.
Overall rating – An overall rating score is based on the achievements of the head coach over the past six seasons, but weighted according to their individual performance.
Strategic intelligence rating – The manager’s ability to prepare and set his team, and analyse the opposition, to maximise the chances of winning the next match.
Tactical command rating – Measuring the manager’s ability to transform a match, and during the match, and, in particular, to develop a winning position for the team from various match scenarios.
Attacking coefficient/success-adjusted attacking coefficient – Measuring the manager’s propensity to play an attacking style of football – and the impact of the manager’s attacking coefficient on the success of the team.
Team shot conversion rating/opposition shot conversion rating – A key metric that highlights a team’s ability to increase the probability of winning matches.
Shot creation ratio – It’s simple. How many chances a manager’s team creates.
Possession – Another fairly straightforward one – how much of the ball a team has.
Surprisingly, when the numbers are crunched, one man stands head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to the best statistical replacement. And despite the work Alonso’s done in Germany with Bayer Leverkusen, he doesn’t come out on top.
Computer predicts Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool’s six ideal replacements
Manager
Objective achievement
Strategic intelligence
Tactical command
Attacking coefficient
Success-adjusted attacking coefficient
Shot conversion
Shot creation
Overall possession home/ away
Overall rating
Jurgen Klopp
568.90
75.93
6.39
27.59
20.95
43.95
1.68 : 1
64 / 60
151.0
Ruben Amorim
486.90
84.26
6.58
25.14
21.31
40.09
2.64 : 1
60 / 61
144.7
Julian Nagelsmann
429.20
98.04
3.76
20.49
18.93
40.54
2.13 : 1
68 / 63
128.0
Thomas Tuchel
511.10
74.19
3.65
20.52
15.13
35.26
2.57 : 1
61 / 64
119.5
Ange Postecoglou
362.70
72.22
5.11
23.18
17.11
45.83
1.61 : 1
64 / 65
116.5
Xabi Alonso
257.60
75.00
4.89
22.65
16.59
37.86
1.60 : 1
59 / 57
106.9
Roberto de Zerbi
283.30
50.00
2.36
20.98
10.44
31.91
1.45 : 1
63 / 62
71.3
