The Premier League’s hopes of securing a fifth Champions League spot are virtually over after Liverpool and West Ham exited Europe on Thursday.
It would take Aston Villa winning all of their remaining Europa Conference League games and for German clubs to have an absolute disaster in their European semi-finals for the Premier League to secure a fifth spot.
Europe’s top leagues have been going head-to-head this season in a bid to earn an additional spot in next season’s competition, with two countries to do so ahead of the introduction of the new Champions League format.
The continent’s premier competition will be expanded from next year for the first time since 2003-2004, growing from 32 clubs in an eight-group style to 36 clubs in what is known as a ‘Swiss’ format.
It will see teams play eight matches in the qualification stage, four home and four away, with the top eight teams progressing to the last 16 and ninth to 24th facing off in two-legged play-offs.
Two of the extra spots will be awarded to the best-performing leagues in Europe this season, and, after the Premier League’s dismal week in Europe, the division faces a major uphill task to earn one of them.
Currently, Italy and Germany lead the table with scores of 19.428 and 17.928 respectively, with England closely following behind on 17.375.
Germany have two teams in the Champions League semi-finals in Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, as well as Bayer Leverkusen in the last four of the Europa League.
Meanwhile, Italy have four teams remaining with Roma, Fiorentina and Atalanta still in the Europa League, leaving them in good stead in the rankings.
England have just one team left after this week’s results, with their hopes resting with Aston Villa in the Conference League.
Liverpool beat Atalanta 1-0 in Bergamo but that wasn’t enough to recover from their abysmal 3-0 thrashing at Anfield last week.
Meanwhile, West Ham earned a commendable 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen in London – and would have won were it not for a late goal – but the damage had already been done with a 2-0 loss in Germany a week earlier.
Italy are mathematically certain to finish in the top two and Germany look all but there.
Aston Villa are England’s only hope of securing some more points in the coefficient table but their chances of gaining enough – and Germany gaining few enough – are vanishingly slim.
England can still manage a maximum possible score of 18.25 – higher than Germany’s current score – if Aston Villa win all of their remaining games and lift the Europa Conference League.
However, earning a fifth Champions League spot would depend on a horrific set of results for Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, and Bayer Leverkusen in their respective semi-finals in the Champions League and Europa League.
A win for a club in Europe is worth two points in the rankings, and a draw one. Bonus points can be collected by progressing in each competition, with more earned for the higher caliber of tournament.
The total points are then divided by the number of teams in Europe from the nation at the start of the season. In the Premier League, the total is divided by seven rather than eight due to West Ham qualifying via winning the Conference League.
While England’s success in Europe could be good news for teams chasing a Champions League spot, it will also benefit those lower down the table.
It would mean qualification for the Europa League and Conference League would in theory be easier, with the spots for qualification moving down.
That would see sixth and seventh qualify for the Europa League – assuming a Champions League side win the FA Cup – would earn a Conference League spot.
Italy and Germany could yet have six teams in the Champions League. If Roma or Atalanta finish outside the top four and win the Europa League, then Serie A will have six team’s in next season’s Champions League, and the same applies if Borussia Dortmund win the big prize.
