NIL has changed the calculus, with college basketball’s top underclassmen now routinely returning to school rather than entering the NBA Draft.
Condolences to any NBA franchise hoping to unearth an overlooked gem late in next month’s NBA Draft.
This year’s second round appears to be historically barren as a result of the skyrocketing NIL market across college basketball.
In the pre-NIL era, college basketball’s top underclassmen routinely entered the NBA Draft even if they were projected to slip to the second round or go unselected. They earned more money chasing an NBA two-way contract or an overseas payday than they could returning to a college model where the only payouts came under the table.
The calculus began to change in 2021 when a series of court rulings forced the NCAA to allow athletes to benefit financially from their name, image, and likeness without fear of penalty. Now underclassmen who are fringe NBA prospects are returning to college in record numbers because they can earn as much as $3 to $4 million per year playing for deep-pocketed college programs.
Texas Tech’s JT Toppin, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, UConn’s Alex Karaban, Duke’s Isaiah Evans and Purdue’s Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn were among the prominent college stars who did not even test the waters this spring. Only 106 players entered the 2025 NBA Draft as early entry candidates, the league announced last month. That’s the lowest number of early entrants since 2015, down from a peak of 353 in 2021.
Many of those 106 early-entry candidates did not remain in the NBA Draft — even some who had a chance to be selected as high as in the 20-45 range. Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg pulled out on the eve of Wednesday’s 11:59 p.m. ET deadline. So did Houston’s Milos Uzan and Florida’s Alex Condon. Days earlier, Boogie Fland and Darrion Williams did the same.
Others truly took their decisions down to the wire. On Wednesday afternoon, promising Auburn point guard Tahaad Pettiford revealed he’d return to school, as did Kentucky’s Otega Oweh and San Diego State’s Miles Byrd. Arkansas’ Adou Thiero, reigning Big East player of the year RJ Luis and ex-Florida State star Jamir Watkins chose to stay in the draft.
Late Wednesday night, minutes before the deadline, Alabama rising sophomore Labaron Philon posted to Instagram that he was coming back to school after originally saying he intended to stay in the draft.
The flood of returning talent to college basketball reflects how much money top-tier programs are willing to spend to try to build the best possible rosters. The Field of 68’s Jeff Goodman reported last month that as many as 15 teams will have $10 million rosters next season. Those in the NIL space who have spoken to Yahoo Sports say that it will take up to $6-8 million just to be competitive in a power conference.
For as long as that kind of money remains available, the sport of college basketball will always be a big winner at the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline. Fringe NBA prospects are staying in college longer than they have in at least a decade or two, maybe longer
Which stay-or-go decisions were the most impactful this season? Below is a list of college programs who got stronger and a few programs who lost key players they may struggle to replace.
DUKE
Duke coach Jon Scheyer made a slight miscalculation this spring when identifying potential targets in the transfer portal: He zeroed in on a prospect who was too good
Cedric Coward began his career at Division III Willamette, spent two seasons at Eastern Washington and then followed David Riley to Washington State. The long-armed, explosive 6-foot-6 wing was averaging 17.7 points and shooting 40% from behind the arc for the Cougars before a shoulder injury halted his season after just six games.
There appeared to be a real chance Coward might play alongside the Boozer twins at Duke when he committed to the Blue Devils earlier this spring while also keeping his name in the NBA Draft. Then Coward measured a condor-like 7-foot-2-inch wingspan at the NBA Draft Combine, unleashed a 38.5-inch max vertical leap and ranked as one of the most consistent shooters in drills.
The question after that was no longer whether Coward would be a first-round pick. It became how high in the first round could he rise?
As so often is the case for Duke, reinforcements are on the way. Scheyer responded by nabbing Dame Sarr, a heralded 6-foot-8 wing from Italy, and by persuading five-star forward Sebastian Wilkins to not only pick the Blue Devils but also reclassify from Class of 2026 to 2025.
