The best way I’ve heard the NCAA Tournament described is as a collection of 4 team tournaments. So, when we look at the draws for the first and second round games, what do our OTE writers think? Should Indiana fans be mad about being left out?
South Region
2 Michigan State Spartans (27-6) v 15 Bryant Bulldogs (23-11)
7 Marquette Golden Eagles (23-10) v 10 New Mexico Lobos (26-7)
BoilerUp89: MSU has a golden opportunity in front of them. Bryant’s strengths (blocked shots and okay, but not excellent defense) shouldn’t play up against MSU. The potential second round matchups wouldn’t scare me either. Marquette has struggled in Big East play and Tom Izzo pretty consistently got the better of Richard Pitino when Pitino was at Minnesota. Looking further ahead, MSU’s 3 seed is an Iowa State squad dealing with injuries. Spartans may have preferred getting Florida over Auburn, but overall this is a nice draw.
Kind of…: Not sure Pitino’s time at Minnesota matters here. Regardless, it’s Izzo in March, and Marquette was playing their best ball in Nov/Dec. Not a gimmee for Sparty, but they can’t complain too much.
MNW: Yeah this is a fine draw for Sparty — keeping just the four in front of them, they get two talented but flawed teams in Marquette and New Mexico. The Lobos push and play decent defense, and Nelly Junior Joseph is a fun double-double machine, but even if they make it past Marquette, Michigan State’s got the horses.
That said, go Marquette.
5 Michigan Wolverines (25-9) v 12 UC San Diego Tritons (30-4)
4 Texas A&M Aggies (22-10) v 13 Yale Bulldogs (22-7)
MNW: I’d be surprised if Michigan made it out. UCSD is your classic 12-over-5 pick, shooting it well—and often—from deep. The Tritons’ success against Irvine makes me less concerned about their ability to handle Michigan’s size. It’s all there, is what I’m saying.
BoilerUp89: Brutal matchup for Michigan. The Wolverines have been better about not turning the ball over recently, but it’s not like the issue has completely disappeared. UC San Diego is 4th in the country at getting steals and 2nd in the country at generating turnovers. They also shoot the ball well from three and as mentioned by MNW take a lot of them. Michigan should dominate on the glass but the Tritons don’t rely on offensive rebounds (they don’t contest them) and despite maxing out at 6’8” are a solid defensive rebounding squad. UC San Diego also has the country’s longest active win streak at 15.
If Michigan gets to the Round of 32, they face a tested Aggies squad that leans on their defense or an extremely disciplined Yale team. I wouldn’t be happy if I was a Michigan with this draw, especially considering they should have gotten a 4 seed over Purdue.
Kind of…: This might be the toughest four-team tournament in the field. Good luck Michigan. They’re better than UCSD, but not by that much. aTm would be a very tough second round matchup, and Yale is for real.
AlmaOtter: I’ve picked the Ivy League winner to advance for years now. When you miss, whatever. When you nail it, it’s fucking Yale taking down Auburn. I love Yale here over A&M. And as for Michigan… I’m biased. I want them to lose in the first round, for their absurd luck to finally turn. But also! The profile of USCD is remarkably similar to what Florida Atlantic looked like this time in 2023. There’s a chance there.
West Region
4 Maryland Terrapins (25-8) v 13 Grand Canyon Antelopes (26-7)
5 Memphis Tigers (29-5) v 12 Colorado State Rams (25-9)
MNW: I’m going to feel like a broken record as I look at these foursomes with competent 12- and 13-seeds, saying “So…why did we need North Carolina in the draw?”
The ‘Lopes are what they are under whichever Drew that is. They go fast, score loads, get to the line, and have both some size and some age. Whether that’ll be enough in the NCAA Tournament without busloads of protestors fans there to see them, I don’t know. Glad they’re making all those profits for Christ or whatever bullshit they do, though.
Colorado State, again—rough to be down on a 12, I think, and lost only to the best in the Mountain West this year. Lack size, but slow it down and play good defense.
Maryland might make it out of here, but that’s a tough group to win two against.
BoilerUp89: Well, these 12 and 13 seeds were auto bids, but point taken. I think Maryland should be fine against Grand Canyon. The Antelopes do play fast and score a lot of points, but they aren’t a very good shooting team and Maryland takes care of the ball which should negate their defensive strengths.
Memphis has Dain Dainja (and he’s maybe the third best player on their team) while Colorado State is on a heater. Hard group to make it through, but I think Maryland might be able to do it. Slightly surprised they aren’t swapped with Purdue for some story line potential.
Kind of…: As a Wisconsin fan, I’d trade places with Maryland in a heartbeat. It’s not easy, but the Terps have their bases covered. Queen and Reese can handle any of these teams inside, and Gillespie gives them inside/outside options. If Gillespie is off his game, maybe they get knocked off, but most teams are beatable if their best guard is off. Like Maryland to get a crack at Florida.
AlmaOtter: We root against Liberty and GCU. And we root for the Crab Five. I love Dain Dainja for his Illini years, but I love the CSU Rams here even more.
East Region
3 Wisconsin Badgers (26-9) v 14 Montana Grizzlies (25-9)
6 BYU Cougars (24-9) v 11 VCU Rams (28-6)
MNW: Go Rams, I guess.
BoilerUp89: Go Rams and Grizzlies. The winner of the 6/11 game should give Wisconsin a game, but BYU plays undisciplined ball and the Badgers generally don’t get frustrated by good defenses like VCU’s.
Kind of…: Clearly the committee had Kentucky, who was behind Wisconsin both KenPom and NET, higher on the S-curve, otherwise they violated a bracketing principle by sending the Badgers to Denver when Milwaukee was available.
This is pretty much the worst case scenario. Playing on Thursday coming off of four games in four days. At altitude. Against teams (Montana and BYU, likely) who aren’t leaving their time zone and are used to playing at altitude.
The BTT is stupid. Especially playing the final on Sunday. But if Wisconsin hadn’t lost at home to Penn State, they would’ve had a double-bye. So, no feeling sorry. Suck it up and prove them wrong. Or don’t, and the Sweet 16-less streak reaches nine years and we spend all offseason wondering about just how good of a coach Gard is.
Ugh.
AlmaOtter: The Badgers got jobbed here with the location, but I think Wiscy makes it through to the second weekend. VCU play hard as hell and BYU scores like Illinois on a good night, but Wisconsin and their Pizza Hut franchisee of a coach will keep them in either of those games.
5 Oregon Ducks (24-9) v 12 Liberty Flames (28-6)
4 Arizona Wildcats (22-12) v 13 Akron Zips (28-6)
MNW: Go Zips. Go Ducks. Christ almighty.
BoilerUp89: It’s not often I find myself rooting for fellow Big Ten teams, but the Ducks have my full support in this one. Liberty shoots and defends the three pretty well, so an upset wouldn’t shock me even if it would make me nauseous.
I enjoy the committee pairing fellow ex-Pac schools together for a potential Round of 32 matchup.
Kind of…: Arizona is a good team with a really checkered tournament history. If you’re Oregon, this is pretty doable on paper.
AlmaOtter: I don’t care for the Lynchburg Baptist College. Go Ducks by a million points. Also I have semi-fond memories of the John Groce years, so get it, Akron.
Midwest Region
4 Purdue Boilermakers (22-11) v 13 High Point Panthers (29-5)
5 Clemson Tigers (27-6) v 12 McNeese Cowboys (27-6)
BoilerUp89: The 4 seed is quite frankly extremely generous by the committee.
High Point has a tremendous head coach, shoots the ball well, and even has a 7 footer. That being said, out of the potential 13 seeds, this is the one I would most want to play (Purdue also couldn’t be matched up with Yale). High Point’s defense doesn’t seem like something that should frustrate Braden Smith and TKR too much, so as long as Purdue remains disciplined and stay with three point shooters I like the Boilermakers’ chances.
Clemson v. McNeese is a classic committee matchup game between two guys rumored to be leading the Indiana head coaching search (no idea why those are the top candidates, but that’s a separate story). I should probably be more scared of them than I am, but out of the 5/12 matchups that’s the best pair I think Purdue could have hoped for.
If Purdue somehow reaches the Sweet 16 (which this year’s current roster has no business doing), they’d be playing in Indianapolis. While Houston would murder the Boilermakers, Gonzaga has made the Sweet 16 for a ridiculous number of tournaments in a row and is more than good enough to knock off the Cougars before then. All said, I have low expectations for Purdue this postseason, but the Committee couldn’t have been kinder to the Boilermakers with their bracket.
Kind of…: Clemson is an intriguing team. But they made the Elite Eight last year, and have no history of good tournament performances in consecutive years. Could McNeese make the Sweet 16? Sure. But, I don’t think there’s a four seed that Purdue would swap places with. And, again, I would gladly give Purdue Wisconsin’s 3-seed in Denver and take their spot here.
MNW: BoilerUp said it pretty well here. No reason Purdue shouldn’t be in the Sweet Sixteen. Congrats to High Point.
AlmaOtter: I feel like I keep picking stupid upsets. I like McNeese.
6 Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) v 11 Texas (19-15)/Xavier (21-11)
3 Kentucky Wildcats (22-11) v 14 Troy Trojans (23-10)
BoilerUp89: Illinois is fully capable of losing to Texas or Xavier, but is also much more talented than either. The Illini will only have themselves to blame if they lose in the first round.
If Illinois advances, Kentucky is hurt. I’m tempted to pencil Illinois into the Sweet 16 but this year’s team hasn’t earned my trust. it could still happen.
Kind of…: Glad a B1G team gets the short trip to Milwaukee. Sigh.
MNW: It’s one of the things you have to admire about Illinois, that nothing feels off the table here. Does Bruce Underwood put the embarrassing loss at Northwestern behind him? Do I keep mentioning it until he stops doing it?
Go Trojans.
AlmaOtter: Every game, the Illini gods flip a coin to find out whether we’ll win by 25 or lose by 25. MNW, you can’t embarrass us. We got CRAB PEOPLEed by Maryland.
7 UCLA Bruins (22-10) v 10 Utah State Aggies (26-7)
2 Tennessee Volunteers (27-7) v 15 Wofford (19-15)
BoilerUp89: The potential UCLA/Tennessee game will be an unwatchable foul fest. But first, UCLA has to travel east of the Rockies to play Utah State in Lexington, Kentucky. UCLA is better, but making the trip east of the mountains has been a huge issue for them this season.
Kind of…: This may be the most uninspiring quarter. Given Rick Barnes’ struggles in March, UCLA advancing is possible. But I’m not betting on it. If UCLA meets Tennessee Aday Mara might get turned into paste.
MNW: Yeah this feels gross and underwhelming all around. UCLA gets a rough geographic draw but a team in Utah State they should match up well with and put the defensive clamps on. Boise State and Colorado State both put the Aggies in a trash can in the last month, the Rams twice so. The Bruins win that one in a 70-59 ick-fest.
And then? Well, narratives abound. Two top-20 defenses, two bottom quintile tempos. I will take my viewing elsewhere.
AlmaOtter: I literally write on Big Ten stuff as a beloved but time-consuming hobby, and when I looked at this pod, I was trying to figure out where the B1G team was. Good luck to ya, Mick, but this them thar hill is east of the mountains.
Snubs
Indiana Hoosiers
BuffKomodo: What a fitting end to the Mike Woodson era.
BoilerUp89: Far be it from me to defend Indiana, but they should have been in the field before UNC, Xavier, or Texas. The only way I would have left Indiana out was if I put in West Virginia, Boise State, and UC Irvine over them – which obviously didn’t happen.
That being said, the Hoosiers didn’t really deserve a tournament bid this year. None of these teams did. It’s another sign that expanding to 68 teams was a mistake.
Kind of...: The quality of the non-conference schedule isn’t bad, but the results just aren’t there. Still should’ve been in ahead of some of the teams that made it, but this isn’t an all-time travesty or anything. Sorry Hoosiers. Good luck with the Ben McCollum era or whatever.
AlmaOtter: Hey, at least Little 500 week is coming up soon on OTE.
Ohio State Buckeyes, Northwestern Wildcats
MNW: The two highest-ranked Kenpom teams to not make the dance. I’m just saying.
AlmaOtter: I just wanted a little more time for MaximumSam to write the spec script for Detective Nicky Meatballs. We just needed one more game.
