Why Liverpool will miss Salah despite wining matches without him for now

The Football Show panel explains why Mohamed Salah could miss the Liverpool game after injury and why the loss of creativity is a problem for Jurgen Klopp.In fact, Liverpool’s expected average of 1.57 goals at the Vitality Stadium was well below their season average of 2.21 goals. For context, they created far better chances (2.38xG) in the goalless draw with Manchester United at Anfield last month.There was certainly less pressure on Fulham after Diaz’s strike.

However, it is worth noting that they all recorded an expected goal ratio of 0.78.Of course, none of that mattered in the end thanks to ruthless finishes from Jota and Nunez against Bournemouth and Diaz’s shot past Bernd Leno at Craven Cottage. However, Liverpool’s expected run of goals ahead of Premier League games against Chelsea and Arsenal calls for caution in assessing their future without Salah.The Egyptian is the Premier League’s top scorer with 14 goals this season, but more importantly he is the leader with eight assists.

What Liverpool are most likely to miss is the ability to create chances rather than finish them.graphics Salah was a huge force in this during his time at Liverpool. Since joining from Roma in 2017, he has provided two assists in four of his six seasons in the Premier League. But this season he took his creative output to a new level. His total of 46 open play opportunities is the most in the division. It also ranks high in terms of the excellent features created.Salah has created an average of 2.38 open play opportunities per 90 minutes this season, significantly higher than his average of 1.72 per 90 over the past six seasons.

For larger features generated, the difference becomes even larger. Salah scored 0.88 per 90 this season, double his 0.43 per 90 the previous year.Salah’s expected number one assist from open play reflects not only the quality and quantity of chances he creates, but also the big chances he creates. The numbers show that Salah can improve his performances. At 31, he could be on his way to a career. But his progress means his absence will cause headaches for Klopp. Liverpool can take encouragement from their recent record without him. They have won nine of their last ten Premier League games. Salah has not played a single game in the last three seasons. But the game against Bournemouth was the first he has missed this season, and therefore his first since his creativity took off.

Containing his losses will be difficult.Trent Alexander-Arnold’s return from injury will help. His unique threat from corners and free kicks is clearly an important weapon. Andrew Robertson overlaying other aspects could also be very beneficial. However, none of these players have shown the ability to match Salah’s recent performances in open play.Salah’s chances from open play are almost 50% better than Alexander-Arnold’s this season.

Robertson’s open play opportunities of 1.25 per 90 are only slightly higher than left back Joe Gomez’s average.A lack of creativity can be mitigated by clinical finishing, as was the case against Bournemouth. Jamie Carragher of Sky Sports later described Diogo Iotta as Liverpool’s best player in Premier League history. But is it sustainable? In the case of steering, this may be the case.

The Portuguese international has a reputation for exceeding expectations. He has scored 38 goals in the Premier League and has an expected total of 32.49 goals while playing for Liverpool.But Nunes has yet to produce consistent results. His record of just 16 Premier League goals compared to an expected goals of 21.42 makes him statistically one of the most wasteful players in the Premier League over the last two seasons.