UNC basketball is a No. 6 seed in the South Region of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament.
The sixth-seeded Tar Heels (24-8) will tip off against No. 11 VCU (27-7) on Thursday, March 19 (6:50 p.m., TNT), at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C.
UNC earned wins over Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and Virginia in the regular season, but the Tar Heels will be without freshman star Caleb Wilson, who is out after season-ending surgery for a right-thumb injury. Carolina has a 5-3 record without Wilson, but it carries a two-game losing streak into March Madness.
Here are two reasons why the Tar Heels will make the Sweet 16 and two reasons it won’t:
UNC basketball history in Greenville could give Tar Heels boost
UNC fans took over Greenville in 2017 and the Tar Heels won their first two games in South Carolina before going on to win the 2017 national championship. After finishing with an 18-0 record at the Smith Center, UNC should feel right at home inside Bon Secours Wellness Arena, which could give them an edge in close games.
Henri Veesaar, NCAA Tournament experience on UNC roster
Despite having 11 newcomers on the roster, UNC has a group with plenty of NCAA Tournament experience. Senior co-captain Seth Trimble has participated in several March Madness games, including a Sweet 16 run in 2024. Junior center Henri Veesaar helped Arizona reach the Sweet 16 last season and junior forward Jarin Stevenson helped Alabama reach its first Final Four in 2024. If UNC is going to make a run, it needs those three players to be at their best. Given their postseason experience, they should be equipped to handle the spotlight and produce at a high level.
UNC basketball has struggled away from Smith Center since Caleb Wilson injury
The Tar Heels were undefeated at home, but struggled to find consistency away from Chapel Hill. UNC won road games at Kentucky and Virginia, and added a neutral-site win against Ohio State, but those wins happened with Caleb Wilson on the court. Wilson is out for the season after surgery to repair a right-thumb injury. UNC has a 6-8 record in road and neutral-site games, including four straight losses away from home against teams that made the NCAA Tournament. That’s not a recipe for a lengthy stay in March Madness.
If UNC beats VCU, Illinois is a nightmare matchup for Tar Heels
VCU will likely be a popular upset pick against the Wilson-less Tar Heels. Even if UNC manages to beat the Rams, the Heels will likely have to face No. 3 seed Illinois (24-8), which is second nationally in offensive efficiency per KenPom. The Fighting Illini make nearly 11 3-pointers per game and have five players averaging double-digit points, led by star freshman Keaton Wagler (17.9 points per game, 4.8 rebounds per game, 4.4 assists per game). Wagler knocks down 40.2% of his 3-pointers. Illinois is also No. 1 nationally in average height, with a starting lineup that includes a 6-foot-6 guard, 6-2 guard, a pair of 6-foot-9 forwards and a 7-foot-1 center. It’s a tough task for the Tar Heels.
2026 March Madness prediction for UNC basketball
The Tar Heels should be able to get by VCU, but Illinois is one of the worst matchups on paper for a UNC defense that has struggled to find consistency this season. It’s unlikely UNC will make it to the second weekend without Caleb Wilson.
