The 2026-27 college basketball season is shaping up to be a fascinating one for the two biggest programs on Tobacco Road.
Duke and North Carolina will enter the new season in very different situations. The Blue Devils are coming off an Elite Eight appearance and have assembled one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the country. North Carolina, meanwhile, is entering a new era under head coach Michael Malone after undergoing significant roster turnover.
Still, the Tar Heels may have more talent than some people realize.
Malone inherited a difficult situation, but he did an impressive job putting together a roster capable of competing immediately. North Carolina has a combination of experienced transfers, returning players and talented newcomers who could make the Tar Heels much more dangerous than expected.
So, how do the projected starting lineups compare?
Let’s take a position-by-position look at Duke and North Carolina heading into the 2026-27 season.
POINT GUARD: CALEB FOSTER VS. TERRENCE BROWN
This might be one of the most difficult comparisons because Caleb Foster and Terrence Brown are expected to bring very different things to their respective teams.
Foster is not necessarily the type of player who will dominate the box score every night, but his overall impact goes far beyond his scoring numbers.
At 6-foot-5, Foster provides Duke with excellent size at the point guard position, along with perimeter defense, rebounding and veteran leadership. He has the ability to score when necessary, but his biggest responsibility will likely be organizing an extremely talented Duke roster and making sure the pieces around him are operating efficiently.
Foster shot nearly 40 percent from three-point range last season on roughly three attempts per game, giving Duke another reliable perimeter threat.
Brown, however, could have a much larger offensive responsibility at North Carolina.
The former Utah guard averaged nearly 20 points per game last season while adding 3.8 assists and 1.4 steals. He shot 45.3 percent from the field and showed that he can carry a significant scoring load.
It would be surprising to see Brown attempt 15.4 shots per game again at North Carolina, but there is a strong possibility that he becomes the Tar Heels’ leading scorer.
That makes this matchup difficult to judge.
Foster could be more valuable as a complete point guard, while Brown could have a much larger offensive impact.
Winner: N/A
SHOOTING GUARD: JOHN BLACKWELL VS. MATT ABLE
This is where Duke appears to have a clear advantage.
John Blackwell enters the season as one of the most intriguing players on the Blue Devils’ roster. The 6-foot-5 guard has been an efficient scorer throughout his career and now appears ready to take on an even larger role.
Blackwell averaged 19 points per game last season while shooting 43 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from three-point range on 7.3 attempts per game.
Those numbers are extremely encouraging.
With Duke losing some of its previous offensive production, Blackwell could receive the green light to become a true No. 1 scoring option.
His ability to score efficiently while taking a significant number of shots makes him one of the players to watch nationally.
North Carolina’s Matt Able is an intriguing player in his own right.
Able averaged 8.8 points in 21.7 minutes per game as a freshman at NC State and showed flashes that suggested his ceiling could be considerably higher than those numbers indicate.
His performance at the NBA Combine further increased his stock and demonstrated why Malone and the Tar Heels were interested in bringing him to Chapel Hill.
Able could become one of North Carolina’s better three-point shooters and could take a major step forward this season.
However, Blackwell already has a proven track record as a high-volume scorer.
Winner: Duke
SMALL FORWARD: DAME SARR VS. NEOKLIS AVDALAS
This is another fascinating matchup because both players could make enormous jumps during their second seasons.
Dame Sarr was one of Duke’s most versatile defenders last season. At 6-foot-8, he possesses the length and athleticism necessary to guard multiple positions.
The biggest question surrounding Sarr has been his perimeter shooting.
He averaged 6.4 points while shooting 32.3 percent from three-point range on 3.5 attempts per game.
If that number improves significantly, his value could rise dramatically.
Sarr already possesses the defensive ability to become one of the most important players on Duke’s roster. If he becomes a consistent three-point shooter, he could also find himself entering NBA Draft conversations.
North Carolina’s Neoklis Avdalas is a completely different type of player.
The 6-foot-9 talent showed flashes of high-level scoring and playmaking during his freshman season at Virginia Tech, averaging 12.1 points and 4.6 assists.
His ability to create offense gives Malone another major weapon.
Avdalas could become one of the most important offensive facilitators on the Tar Heels’ roster, but Sarr’s defensive versatility gives Duke an advantage in this particular comparison.
Winner: Duke
POWER FORWARD: JOAQUIM BOUMTJE BOUMTJE VS. JARIN STEVENSON
This matchup might be one of the most interesting because the two players represent completely different roster-building philosophies.
Duke’s projected starting power forward spot is not completely settled, with Cameron Williams also competing for the position.
However, Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje appears to have a legitimate opportunity to win the job.
At 7-foot-2 and 250 pounds, Boumtje Boumtje has an unusual combination of size and skill. He can shoot from the perimeter, pass the basketball and defend multiple areas of the floor.
Despite his young age, his skill set gives him an extremely high ceiling.
North Carolina has something Duke does not have at this position: continuity.
Jarin Stevenson decided to return to Chapel Hill after averaging 8.1 points and 4.4 rebounds while starting 25 games last season.
In today’s college basketball landscape, returning experience can be incredibly valuable.
Stevenson already understands the program, his teammates and what is expected of him. That familiarity could make him an important stabilizing presence for Malone.
Duke may have the higher ceiling at this position, but North Carolina could benefit from Stevenson’s experience.
Winner: North Carolina
CENTER: MICHAEL NGONGBA II VS. CAMERON FENS
The center battle gives Duke another significant advantage.
Michael Ngongba II was one of the more underrated defensive players in college basketball last season.
His ability to protect the rim while also possessing enough mobility to defend away from the basket makes him a particularly valuable piece for Duke.
Ngongba’s defensive versatility could be one of the reasons the Blue Devils emerge as one of the nation’s best defensive teams.
North Carolina’s Cameron Fens brings a different type of strength.
The seven-foot transfer from South Dakota averaged 14.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game last season.
Those are impressive numbers.
Fens also earned First Team All-Summit League honors and was selected to the Summit League All-Defensive Team.
His size and rebounding ability could become extremely important for the Tar Heels.
The question is whether he can immediately translate that production to the high-major level.
Ngongba has the advantage in defensive versatility and has already demonstrated his ability to operate within Duke’s system.
Winner: Duke
SO WHO HAS THE BETTER STARTING LINEUP?
When everything is put together, Duke appears to have the advantage.
The Blue Devils won the shooting guard battle, small forward battle and center battle, while North Carolina claimed the power forward position. The point guard comparison is essentially impossible to judge because Foster and Brown are expected to have very different responsibilities.
That does not mean North Carolina should be dismissed.
Far from it.
The Tar Heels have enough talent to make this comparison much closer than some people might expect.
Brown could become one of the most productive scorers in the ACC. Avdalas has the potential to become a major offensive creator. Stevenson provides valuable continuity, while Fens gives Malone a legitimate seven-foot interior presence.
And then there is the biggest unknown of all: how quickly Malone’s system comes together.
Duke enters the season with continuity, established talent and championship expectations.
North Carolina enters with something to prove.
That could make the rivalry even more interesting.
Duke may have the deeper and more complete starting lineup on paper, but basketball is not played on paper.
The Tar Heels will have opportunities to close the gap throughout the season, and when these two programs eventually meet, the individual matchups could tell a very different story.
For now, though, Duke appears to have the edge.
But if Malone gets the best out of his roster, North Carolina could make this debate much more complicated before the season is over.
And for fans on both sides of Tobacco Road, that is exactly what makes the 2026-27 season so intriguing.
