Duke has established itself as the obvious team to beat in the ACC. The real debate begins immediately after the Blue Devils.
As the 2026-27 college basketball season approaches, the Atlantic Coast Conference once again looks like one of the deepest and most unpredictable leagues in the country. There may be plenty of disagreement about the order of teams behind the top spot, but one thing has become increasingly difficult to dispute: Duke belongs at the front of the conversation.
The Blue Devils enter the new season with an impressive foundation. Duke went 35-3 in 2025-26, won both the ACC regular-season and tournament championships, and reached the Elite Eight. The program also returns five players from last year’s team, including four of its top six scorers. �
Duke University
That combination of returning production, recruiting talent and recent success explains why Duke continues to attract so much attention.
But here’s where the ACC conversation gets interesting.
Who comes next?
Duke Has Earned the Favorite Label
Duke isn’t simply being projected near the top because of its name or tradition.
The Blue Devils have been remarkably consistent under head coach Jon Scheyer. Over the last two seasons, Duke has won 70 games against just seven losses, including a 36-2 record in ACC play. The program also spent 32 weeks ranked inside the Associated Press top five during that stretch. �
Duke University
That level of consistency makes Duke the logical starting point for any ACC preseason discussion.
The 2026 preseason Associated Press poll also reflects the national respect surrounding the program. Duke entered the season ranked No. 6 nationally, while Louisville was the next ACC team listed at No. 11. �
College Poll Archive
So the question isn’t really whether Duke should be taken seriously.
The question is whether anyone in the conference can consistently challenge the Blue Devils over an entire season.
The Race Behind Duke Is Much More Complicated
This is where preseason predictions become difficult.
College basketball is particularly vulnerable to offseason change. Transfers, freshmen, returning starters, coaching changes and player development can dramatically alter a team’s ceiling from one season to the next.
That makes the second, third and fourth spots in an ACC preseason projection much harder to predict than Duke’s position.
Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia and several other programs have legitimate arguments for being part of the conference’s upper tier.
Louisville, for example, is already nationally ranked at No. 11 in the preseason AP poll. �
College Poll Archive
North Carolina, meanwhile, remains one of the biggest brands in college basketball and enters the season with plenty of expectations surrounding its program.
Virginia presents another fascinating case. The Cavaliers have undergone significant changes in recent seasons, making it difficult to determine exactly where they belong among the conference’s contenders.
And that’s precisely why the ACC preseason conversation is so entertaining.
The Poll Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story
Preseason polls are useful, but they are not predictions carved in stone.
The ACC’s recent history is a perfect reminder of that.
In the 2025-26 preseason media poll, Duke was picked first with 866 points and 34 first-place votes. Louisville was extremely close behind with 842 points and the other 15 first-place votes. North Carolina was third with 741 points, followed by NC State and Virginia. �
Atlantic Coast Conference
That poll demonstrated just how narrow the gap could be between teams near the top.
It also illustrates why arguments about preseason rankings can become so intense. A few first-place votes or a handful of points can separate teams that ultimately have very different seasons.
Why Duke’s Depth Matters
One of the biggest reasons Duke remains the safe choice at No. 1 is the amount of returning production.
The Blue Devils bring back players such as Cayden Boozer, Caleb Foster, Patrick Ngongba II and Dame Sarr, while also adding transfers and another highly regarded recruiting class. Duke’s returning group accounted for more than 1,100 points, over 500 rebounds and more than 300 assists last season. �
Duke University
That matters because continuity can be extremely valuable in college basketball.
A team doesn’t have to spend the first month of the season figuring out who should have the ball, where players should stand or how they want to defend.
Duke already has a foundation.
The challenge for everyone else is finding a way to close the gap.
The Biggest Question: Who Can Challenge Duke?
This may ultimately be the most important question in the entire ACC.
Is Louisville ready to make the leap from contender to legitimate conference favorite?
Can North Carolina put together the consistency needed to compete with Duke over an entire league schedule?
Can Virginia establish itself as a defensive powerhouse again?
Can NC State, Clemson, Miami, Syracuse or another team emerge as the surprise challenger?
Those questions make the preseason poll much more interesting than simply identifying the No. 1 team.
Duke may have the clearest case at the top, but the rest of the conference remains wide open.
ACC Basketball Could Be Extremely Competitive
Another reason to watch the preseason rankings closely is the depth of the league.
The ACC isn’t simply about one or two teams.
There are multiple programs capable of putting together NCAA Tournament-caliber seasons, and the expanded national landscape means every conference game can have significant consequences.
A team projected fifth could potentially challenge for the league title.
A team projected near the middle could make a postseason run.
And a highly ranked team could quickly fall down the standings if injuries, chemistry problems or inconsistent play become issues.
That’s the nature of college basketball.
Final Take
Everyone agrees on Duke. Nobody agrees on what comes next.
That may be the most accurate way to describe the ACC entering the 2026-27 season.
Duke has the recent results, returning talent and national recognition to justify its position as the team everyone else is chasing. The Blue Devils’ 70-7 record over the past two seasons provides a compelling argument that they have earned that status rather than simply inherited it. �
Duke University
But after Duke, the conversation becomes much more complicated.
Louisville has national recognition. North Carolina has the tradition and talent to remain in the discussion. Virginia, NC State and other ACC programs have opportunities to move into the championship picture.
And that’s what makes the upcoming season so intriguing.
The preseason poll can establish expectations, but the games will decide who actually belongs behind Duke—and whether anyone can eventually knock the Blue Devils from the top.
