The new era of North Carolina basketball under Michael Malone is finally beginning to take shape, but the Tar Heels are entering the 2026-27 season with plenty to prove.
North Carolina will open its exhibition schedule Friday against USC in Greensboro, giving fans their first opportunity to see Malone’s team in game action. While an exhibition result will not count toward the Tar Heels’ eventual NCAA Tournament résumé, the matchup represents an important first look at a program undergoing significant change.
Malone arrived in Chapel Hill after Hubert Davis was dismissed following a disappointing season. The former NBA head coach brings an impressive résumé and a wealth of experience, but there are still plenty of questions surrounding his transition to the college game.
Those questions are reflected in ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi’s latest early-season Bracketology.
Lunardi has North Carolina projected to make the NCAA Tournament, but the Tar Heels are not exactly entering the projected field with much room for error. He currently places UNC among the “last four byes,” meaning the Tar Heels are projected to avoid the expanded opening round but are among the final teams to receive that advantage.
In Lunardi’s projection, North Carolina is a No. 9 seed in the Midwest Region, where the Tar Heels would face No. 8 Missouri in the opening round.
Illinois is projected as the No. 1 seed in that region, creating another interesting connection for North Carolina. The Tar Heels were also placed in the same region as Illinois in last season’s NCAA Tournament.
Of course, there is still an enormous amount of basketball to be played before Selection Sunday.
Lunardi’s October projection should not be viewed as a prediction of exactly where North Carolina will finish. Instead, it provides an early snapshot of how the national picture currently views the Tar Heels heading into a season filled with uncertainty.
And given everything that has changed in Chapel Hill, the No. 9 seed projection is understandable.
The biggest variable may be Malone himself.
Although Malone has established himself as a highly respected coach at the NBA level, coaching college basketball brings an entirely different set of challenges. Recruiting, roster management, NIL, the transfer portal and developing younger players are now part of his daily responsibilities.
How quickly Malone adjusts to those responsibilities could have a major impact on North Carolina’s season.
The roster also presents some questions.
North Carolina appears to have plenty of talent and depth on the perimeter, giving Malone several options when it comes to ball-handling, scoring and playmaking. The Tar Heels should have the ability to create offense from multiple positions, which could become one of the team’s biggest strengths.
The frontcourt, however, remains a bigger concern.
Center depth is one of the areas where North Carolina does not have the same level of security it possesses at guard. Injuries, foul trouble or inconsistent production in the paint could potentially create problems against some of the stronger teams on the schedule.
That makes the development of the frontcourt especially important during the opening weeks of the season.
At the same time, there are reasons for optimism.
North Carolina has a new head coach, a talented group of players and an opportunity to build an entirely new identity. Malone has already challenged his players to embrace larger roles, and returning players such as Jarin Stevenson will be expected to provide leadership as the roster adjusts to a new system.
The Tar Heels also have plenty of opportunities throughout the season to improve their NCAA Tournament résumé.
A strong performance against quality opponents, combined with consistent results in ACC play, could quickly move North Carolina from the edge of the projected field to a much safer position. Conversely, struggles against lesser opponents could leave the Tar Heels fighting to stay on the right side of the bubble.
That is what makes Lunardi’s early projection particularly interesting.
North Carolina is not being left out of the tournament picture. Instead, the Tar Heels are being viewed as a team with enough potential to make the field but enough uncertainty to remain vulnerable.
For a program with national championship expectations, that may not be where Tar Heel fans want to see their team ranked.
But it is also only October.
There is plenty of time for Malone and his players to change the national perception of this team. Friday’s exhibition against USC will provide the first glimpse of what that process might look like.
By the time Selection Sunday arrives, North Carolina could look completely different in the bracket.
For now, though, Lunardi has the Tar Heels dancing — but barely.
