The NBA trade deadline is in the rearview mirror. The All-Star break is nigh. For teams chasing postseason glory, there is plenty of regular season left to finetune.
Cooper Flagg is the 18-year-old Duke phenom and the consensus No. 1 overall pick at this juncture of the season. The two-way star should still be in high school and yet can reasonably claim to be the best player in college hoops, averaging 19.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4 assists for one of the top teams in the nation. The only NCAA player with a better Box Plus-Minus than Flagg is Auburn’s fifth-year senior Johni Broome, who is older than All-Star Alperen Şengün.
The NBA has tried to curb outright tanking for prospects like Flagg. Beginning in 2019, the league office capped odds at landing the No. 1 pick at 14 percent for the bottom three teams, removing the incentive to win the race to the bottom of the bottom.
But there are plenty of intriguing scenarios that will make the draft lottery must-see TV.
The best team in the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder, could land the No. 1 overall pick. So could Victor Wembanyama’s club in San Antonio.
To see how, let’s take a dive into the lottery situation with about 30 games to go for each team. The strength of schedule data comes from Positive Residual’s handy metric that accounts for rest days, game location, altitude and team strength.
