Duke basketball closes out its two-game road stretch at Louisville on Tuesday, Jan. 6 in what will be a top-25 matchup from the KFC Yum! Center.
The No. 5 Blue Devils (13-1, 2-0 ACC) will face No. 13 Louisville (11-3, 1-1 ACC) at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Blue Devils have won the last seven straight over the Cardinals, including the last three from the KFC Yum! Center. It will also mark a rematch of last year’s ACC championship game, which Duke won 73-62.
Duke is coming off a slim 91-87 win over Florida State on Jan. 3 behind a career-high 28 points from Isaiah Evans. It was another close game for the Blue Devils and their third straight allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field.
Louisville dropped its ACC contest to Stanford on Jan. 2 in a game where Pat Kelsey said his team got “punched in the mouth.” The Cardinals have been without starting point guard Mikel Brown Jr. since Dec. 13 due to a lower back injury.
Here are some things to know and a score prediction for Duke’s matchup with Louisville:
Will Mikel Brown Jr. play for Louisville?
The Cardinals have been without starting point guard Mikel Brown Jr. since Dec. 13, going 2-2 across that stretch. Despite missing the last four games, Brown Jr. remains Louisville’s second-leading scorer, averaging 16.6 points per game while shooting 38.1% from the field, and is the team’s leading facilitator at 5.1 assists per game. Louisville was also without forward Kasean Pryor against Stanford, despite Pryor being listed as available.
Kelsey said following Friday’s loss on the Cardinal Sports Network that Brown Jr. is “rehabbing hard” and is day-to-day as he attempts to return. Sophomore Adrian Wooley has entered the lineup in Brown Jr.’s place. He dropped a season-high 21 points in Louisville’s ACC opening win over Cal but was held to three points in the loss at Stanford.
Can Duke basketball defense improve against Louisville?
Louisville is another team, similar to Florida State, that relies heavily on 3-point shooting. The Cardinals are fifth in the NCAA in 3-point attempts per game, with 40.6% of their points coming off treys and 39.1% coming off of 2-pointers, per KenPom. On the season, the Cardinals are 35.4% from deep, 107th nationally, and are coming off a 6-of-27 (22.2%) outing vs. Stanford, also being held to 20.6% from deep in its loss to Tennessee on Dec. 16.
Duke’s perimeter defense has been tested of late. Florida State, which entered Saturday shooting 31.3% from 3, connected on 44.4% from deep against the Blue Devils and opened the game 5-of-6. Georgia Tech also found success from the perimeter, knocking down 10-of-18 3-pointers (55.6%) against Duke on Dec. 31.
Duke saw more positive results defending the 3 when Jon Scheyer shifted to a zone look, a potential adjustment as the Blue Devils face another high-volume perimeter shooting team in Louisville. Duke’s defense remains top-50 against the 3, holding opponents to an average 28.9% from deep.
Foul trouble can hurt Cardinals
Foul trouble has been an issue as of late for Louisville, especially in the loss to Stanford. Ryan Cowell, the team’s leading scorer with 19.6 points per game, led the Cardinals with 18 points on Friday but fouled with nearly two minutes remaining. Three other Cardinals picked up four fouls: J’Vonne Hadley, Khani Rooths and Wooley. The trend has allowed opponents to get to the free-throw line frequently: Stanford attempted 31 free throws against Louisville and Cal had 27.
Duke’s free-throw shooting has been inconsistent this season, but the Blue Devils made 23-of-25 (92%) from the line against Florida State, their best performance of the year. Duke has also fared well from the line especially late down the stretch, with Isaiah Evans, Caleb Foster and Cameron Boozer each hitting a pair of free throws late against FSU to keep the game out of reach.
The Blue Devils will need use their physicality to get the Cardinals into foul trouble, turning trips to the charity stripe into a key advantage.
Duke vs Louisville score prediction
Duke 84, Louisville 83: Prepare for another nail-biter from the Blue Devils. Louisville’s perimeter shooting and Duke’s defensive lapses could keep this game close, but the Blue Devils should be able to pull out another clutch win on the road.
