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How Liverpool can force Premier League title play-off vs Man City as six-game route opens up

Liverpool and Arsenal have handed the Premier League initiative to Man City after losing at the weekend. But a title play-off is still a genuine possibility.

Liverpool, on the whole, will be grateful that its situation is no worse. Having lost to Crystal Palace at Anfield, there was a sense even on the pitch that it might all be over, with the players looking downcast.

 

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But with Arsenal also losing hours later, Liverpool is only slightly worse off than it was before the weekend. It still needs to either engineer a goal difference swing or hope Arsenal drops any kind of points somewhere; the change is that Manchester City must also now slip up along the way as well.

 

Naturally, that’s not ideal, with Pep Guardiola’s men renowned for frustratingly perfect finishes. But Liverpool and Arsenal can at least pile the pressure on with two matches before Manchester City next plays, and a return to league action away at Brighton will not necessarily be straightforward.

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Should Manchester City be held to a draw in that one and then win its remaining fixtures, Liverpool could ensure it finishes level on points by winning its six remaining games. At the moment, that probably looks like the least plausible part of the equation, but if the Reds can find some finishing form then it’s certainly not impossible.

 

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Guardiola also has a tricky game with Tottenham to navigate late in the season, so a single draw along the way is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility. And if Liverpool takes care of its business, that takes us into the realms of goal difference.

 

After a big win over Luton, Manchester City has overtaken Liverpool on this front. Its overall tally is three better, while its ‘goals scored’ column is four better. Both of these could become relevant, as the Premier League’s first two tiebreakers for teams level on points.

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After that, head-to-head records are considered. But that’s no use in the event of a tie between Liverpool and Manchester City, as they shared the points with identical score-lines at Anfield and the Etihad.

 

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Should Arsenal be part of such a tie, it would win, boasting a better head-to-head record than Liverpool or Manchester City. But if Mikel Arteta’s side drops back, leaving a tie on all fronts between the other two, there would be no option other than a title playoff.

 

Obviously, it’s an unlikely scenario. But with six games left, it’s still surprisingly within the realms of possibility. Let’s say Manchester City drew 1-1 with Brighton, winning every remaining game 1-0. This specific scenario is not especially likely, but it’s a useful illustration.

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Liverpool would then finish dead level with Manchester City if it won all of its remaining games, scoring a total of 10 goals and conceding two. That would result in the exciting but terrifying title playoff.

 

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Hypothetical scenario for Liverpool vs Man City Premier League title playoff:

 

Brighton 1-1 Man City // Fulham 0-1 Liverpool

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Nottingham Forest 0-1 Man City // Everton 1-3 Liverpool

 

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Man City 1-0 Wolves // West Ham 0-2 Liverpool

 

Fulham 0-1 Man City // Liverpool 1-0 Spurs

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Spurs 0-1 Man City // Aston Villa 0-1 Liverpool

Man City 1-0 West Ham // Liverpool 2-1 Wolves

Liverpool ties ‘goals for’ on the final day, having already leveled goal difference. It forces a Premier League playoff.

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