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It’s all falling apart for Pep Guardiola and Liverpool will watch his next move very closely


Pep Guardiola went for a bullish approach after the 3-3 draw against Spurs. In previous races with Liverpool, he has always studiously avoided making any title predictions, but the Manchester City boss came out swinging and declared he believed his side would retain its Premier League crown.

The generous interpretation is that he was hoping to spark a response from his players, giving them a shot of self-confidence to carry them through the festive fixture list. That said, it’s hard to see how a senseless swipe at the Sky Sports pundits fitted into that strategy, with Jamie Carragher’s lack of titles at Liverpool presumably not something playing on the minds of the Manchester City stars all that much.

Guardiola would argue he was making a point about how hard it is to win four titles in a row, the feat for which he is currently gunning. But more than anything else, he just came across rattled.

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His out-of-character title prediction already looks on shakier ground after Manchester City fell 1-0 to a buoyant Aston Villa side. That makes it an almost unprecedented four in a row without a win for Guardiola, who now finds himself four points behind Liverpool — who took care of business against Sheffield United — and six behind Arsenal.

It’s far too early to be talking seriously about the title being in or out of anyone’s hands, with all of the contenders showing indications that there will be plenty more dropped points before the end of the season. But mathematically, at least, Guardiola now technically finds himself relying on favors from elsewhere.

It sounds dramatic to say it is all falling apart. But given the standards Manchester City has set for itself, this is not hyperbole. The simple truth is that Guardiola has rarely, if ever, had to overcome this kind of adversity.

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As a result, his rivals will be watching his next move very closely indeed. Guardiola struck a sufficiently humble figure after Aston Villa put his side to the sword, acknowledging that the better side won, but he now urgently needs to show he has answers.

He will not find them in pot-shots at Liverpool legends, or in snide remarks about ‘Mikel Arteta comments’. The pressure is on like it has never been before — and frankly, it is showing.

Manchester City is at least out of the woods for now in terms of the fixture list, with Guardiola surely hopeful of being able to put things right against Luton. But at the moment, coming up on the halfway mark, his side are only good for a 76-point season, which would be remarkably out of character.

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From Liverpool’s end, it will continue with its default assumption that Manchester City will win every game, and set about trying to take care of its own business. But with each passing week, it looks as though it will need to pay at least equal attention to Arsenal, which has shown far more resolve and steel up to this point.

A word for Aston Villa, too, which has now actually leapfrogged Guardiola’s team into third, and looks more like it should be counted into the title picture with each passing week. Unai Emery shrugged that suggestion off, but he has masterminded a record-equaling 14 home wins in a row, and Liverpool’s 3-0 triumph at Anfield looks more valuable by the week.

Another failure to win next time out would send Guardiola into full-on crisis mode. But even if he belatedly gets Manchester City back on track, it’s still a team Liverpool will barely recognize from title races gone by — only time will tell how the Catalan, more vulnerable than he has been in years, reacts to the novel challenge.

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