The Kentucky Wildcats smashed LSU in dominant fashion in their home game of the season. Now, their attention turns towards their regular-season finale vs. the No. 15 Missouri Tigers in Columbia on Saturday. Game time is set for noon ET on ESPN.
One of the biggest surprise teams in college basketball, the Tigers are ranked fifth in the SEC and have one of the nation’s most potent offenses. Led by National Coach of the Year candidate Dennis Gates, in his third season, they have an overhauled roster from last season’s team that went winless in SEC play.
Since starting conference play 6-2, Missouri has been just 4-5 in the nine games since, including losses to Arkansas and Vanderbilt, albeit two teams Kentucky has lost to, and on the road.
Which version of Missouri will Kentucky be facing? The one that just to said teams and just got manhandled at Oklahoma? Or will it be the one that thoroughly dismantled Alabama just a few weeks ago?Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Rebounding
One of Kentucky’s biggest priorities this season has been rebounding, but they’ve been inconsistent in that area. After losing the rebounding battle in three straight games, the Wildcats have won in the two games since.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the SEC. It’s not due to a lack of size, with a roster that ranks in the top 50 in average height.
The Tigers have lost the battle of the boards in three straight contests: Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt — all statistically worse teams on the board than Kentucky.The Cats must continue that trend and use rebounds to help control the game.
Avoid Turnover Bug
Missouri is not an elite defensive team, but they do create havoc and generate steals, ranking second in the nation with nearly 10 steals per game.For Kentucky, taking care of the ball has been a challenge of late. Against LSU, the Cats had less than 12 turnovers for the first time in five games, but the Tiger defense wasn’t exactly stout.
Lamont Butler is leading the charge and continuing to get healthy, which helps with this. However, players like Travis Perry and Otega Oweh need to be prepared for the pressure of the Missouri backcourt, including Anthony Robinson and Caleb Grill, who both rank in the top 10 of the SEC in steals.
Defense Without Fouling
Kentucky has been better on the defensive end since mid-February but has still allowed big scoring numbers to elite offenses in that span, including 96 points to Alabama and 94 to Auburn.
According to KenPom, Missouri has the fifth most efficient offense in the country. A big part of that offense comes from the free-throw line. Drawing more than 20 fouls per game, the Tigers score nearly a quarter of their points from the charity stripe.
It will be very important for the Cats to defend without fouling. Not only will that take away a big source of points, but it will keep Kentucky’s best players out of foul trouble. That is important, given that the roster lacks consistent production from the bench.
Then again, this is dependent on SEC officiating. In three of Missouri’s last six games, they have shot 35 or more free throws. In the other three, they have shot 17 or less.
Opposing Players to Watch
G Caleb Grill 6-3, 205 lbs
14.3 PPG
1.8 SPG (9th in SEC)
43% 3P (3rd in SEC)
G Mark Mitchell 6-6, 230 lbs
13.9 PPG
4.7 RPG
49.4% FG
G Anthony Robinson 6-3, 180 lbs
9.7 PPG
3.6 APG (10th in SEC)
45.5% 3P
2.1 SPG (2nd in SEC)
Kentucky Basketball vs. Missouri Tigers
Time: 12:00 PM ET on March 8th, 2025
Location: Mizzou Arena in Columbia, Missouri
TV Channel: ESPN
Announcers: Tom Hart and Dane Bradshaw
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | MIZZ
Stats to Know: UK | MIZZ
KenPom: UK | MIZZ
Team Sheet: UK | MIZZ
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for this game, so check back Friday for those. ESPN has Kentucky as a small underdog with a 47.1% chance at victory, while EvanMiya gives the Cats just a 29.7% chance at the upset. KenPom (35%) and BartTorvik (30%) fall in between.
Predictions: BartTorvik (88-82), EvanMiya (86-80), and Haslametrics (86-80) all predict a six-point loss for Kentucky, while KenPom is going with Missouri 86-82. I think the Wildcats will get one more big win in the regular season, so I’m going with an 88-81 victory, Kentucky!
Send us your Kentucky vs. Missouri score predictions in the comments section!
Go CATS!
