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Michael Edwards should revisit his old notes as data finds Liverpool’s ideal Mohamed Salah heir

An apparent Liverpool transfer target from the first Michael Edwards era still makes sense as a Mohamed Salah heir. The numbers emphatically bear that out. 

Michael Edwards was clear. He had no interest in rejoining Liverpool as sporting director.

 

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In the end, he did not technically come back to Liverpool at all, instead taking up a role within FSG. Given that he has been tasked with overseeing footballing operations within an ownership group that currently owns just one football team, that might seem like a meaningless distinction — but it was significant that the news of his appointment was carried by a press release from the owners rather than an update on the club website. The Athletic suggests Edwards has been carefully controlling the narrative throughout the process of his return.

 

Quoted in that statement, Edwards wasted no time in confirming that the commitment to acquire a second club was a big part of what tempted him back into the FSG fold. His role will certainly evolve into something new, as Liverpool breaks new ground by becoming part of a multi-club system. 

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But for now, it’s clear that priority one will be Liverpool itself. The Reds are tasked with replacing Jürgen Klopp, hiring a new sporting director and then assessing the contract situations of Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, all of whom will be entering the final year of their deals in the summer.

 

Once a sporting director is hired, with Richard Hughes expected to join, some of that responsibility will lie with him. But as the big-picture man, much like Mike Gordon before him, Edwards will certainly have plenty of involvement in these decisions, and will presumably guide the overarching strategy.

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Hopefully, he will conclude that the aforementioned Liverpool trio should all be offered new contracts. There’s surely going to be minimal fuss over Alexander-Arnold, the 25-year-old vice-captain who looks destined to become one of the club’s all-time legends. But question marks linger over the others.

 

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There’s a strong case for Van Dijk to be offered a renewal, with the data showing he remains one of the best in the world in his position. Edwards has a reputation for favoring young players, but he has not made a habit of selling players who are still in their prime.

 

Much the same surely applies for Salah. With FSG having already shattered its wage structure once to accommodate the Egyptian, that potentially complicates the equation, especially with Saudi Arabia on the scene — but he remains the Liverpool talisman, and he would be impossible to directly replace.

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Regardless of whether he signs a new deal, though, an heir for Salah does need to be sourced. Sooner or later Liverpool will need a replacement, and nobody in-house quite fits the mold, either positionally or in terms of talent.

 

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Fortunately, Edwards may have some old notes that he might want to pass on to the new sporting director. The Salah heir may well be in the back of a filing cabinet somewhere under the ‘2021’ tab.

 

Liverpool was linked with Donyell Malen back when he was still at PSV, while Edwards himself was still sporting director at Anfield. The Dutchman went to Borussia Dortmund instead, but he could be on the move again in the summer. 

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According to BILD, Liverpool is among the clubs taking an interest. Borussia Dortmund would sell for around $65m (£51m/€60m).

 

Three years older, Malen is a slightly less typical Edwards signing now. But he is still only 25, not much older than Salah was when he joined Liverpool. And the data paints a picture of a surprisingly perfect successor.

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FBref ranks Malen as the fourth-most similar player to Salah in Europe’s top five leagues. The most striking and surprising likeness is goal output.

 

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There is no goal-scoring winger as prolific or as consistent as Salah. But on a per-90 basis, Malen has been more than keeping up over the last year, netting 0.65 goals per 90 compared to 0.58 for the Liverpool man.

 

Encouragingly, while Malen is overperforming his expected goals, he is not doing so by such a margin that it seems entirely non-repeatable. His chances are worth half a goal per 90 minutes, extremely healthy numbers.

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Given that Malen only has 11 Bundesliga goals this season, this is something of a revelation. But Dortmund used him only sparingly at the start of the campaign, and he has flourished with a more regular role since around the turn of the year. 

Malen is not as much of a creator as Salah, but the Borussia Dortmund star is still able to rely on the explosiveness that characterized the Egyptian’s early years at Anfield. Rather than a progressive pass, he is more inclined to make a progressive carry, and he is well above average when it comes to successful take-ons.

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It’s not a perfect fit, but there is nobody quite like Salah. Among the candidates considered a ‘closer’ match by FBref, Vinicius Júnior is entirely unattainable, as is Phil Foden. That only leaves Leroy Sané, who likely has the wrong age profile to be of much interest to Edwards.

 

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In the circumstances, then, perhaps the data paints Malen as the ideal option. Perhaps Edwards already reached a similar conclusion three years ago. Whatever the truth of those previous links, Liverpool should certainly be looking at the Borussia Dortmund star now.

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