There have been surprise wins in the Premier League, including Leicester City’s win in 2015/16 and Blackburn Rovers’ surprise win in 1994/95.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa 2023/24 Premier League win may not reach the same incredible heights as Leicester’s historic win, but it is still one of the greatest wins of all time.
Such a scenario still seems unlikely, but Villa’s recent 1-0 win over Manchester City has made the dreams of their fans, and even some in neutral countries, even bigger.
Opta’s supercomputer currently puts Villa’s chances of winning up to 1.2% in simulations. However, it is known that these AI-based predictions can be influenced by a team’s past performance compared to the four existing competitors.
If Aston Villa win against current league leaders Arsenal on Saturday, they will move into the same place as Unai Emery’s former side. Moreover, if Liverpool fail to beat Crystal Palace in their previous match on the day, they could move within just one point of top spot.
Unai Emery’s brilliant tactical plan
Emery’s tactical prowess was clearly in evidence as his Villa side cruised to victory over Manchester City on Wednesday night.
Villa racked up an unprecedented 13 possessions against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City in the Premier League, a testament to Emery’s strategic approach to reducing the famous side’s possession.
During Emery’s tenure, Villa effectively pressed the final third, and since Emery’s first spell in charge, only three teams have had a higher goal completion percentage (17.5%) than Villa.
Interestingly, Villa do not turn the ball over as much as the top three clubs in the bottom three (7.3 per game) – Arsenal (10.3), Liverpool (9.7), Manchester United (9.5), Chelsea ( 9.3) and Manchester City (9.1).
Unai Emery’s defensive strategy for Aston Villa has resulted in their opponents being caught offside 173 times. That’s 78 more than any other team. This approach has been criticized at times, such as in the 5-1 defeat of Newcastle in the opening game, when opponents constantly struggled to find a way to break Villa’s offside trap.
Is history repeating itself?
Aston Villa’s current tally of 32 points is not only the best at this stage of the Premier League season, it is also the same as Leicester City, who won the fairytale title in 2015/2016.
Emery’s record at Villa sees him average 2.02 points per game in 40 games. Remarkably, he joins a select group of 10 managers who have managed at least 35 games for their club and scored at least two goals per game.
Interestingly, all nine former managers in this category have won a Premier League title with their teams.
conclusion
Some pundits refuse to give Villa a chance of winning the Premier League, but with names like Tottenham Hotspur’s title, they think it’s a bit disrespectful.
Meanwhile, people still want to talk about Manchester City winning the league over Aston Villa, but Emery’s side are currently two points ahead of them. This is football snobbery. But if things continue like this, pundits will have no choice but to put Villa in the headline picture.
