Without being rude, a draw with Luton Town can only be considered a two point defeat.
The 1-1 draw at Kenilworth Road was a result that will be remembered as a huge missed opportunity at the end of the season. Especially considering Liverpool have missed out on the title by a point twice recently.
A repeat of Sunday afternoon’s game looked unlikely. The Reds struggled to break down defenses last season before collapsing at the break. It felt like déjà vu as Ross Barkley sprinted into midfield before the ball found its way to Tahit Chong’s feet.
The former Manchester United man flew into the penalty area with ease past Alexis McAllister, as he did others against Fabinho and Jordan Henderson last season.
Despite the similarities, at least visually, the game against Luton has many differences to the games against Wolves, Brentford, Bournemouth, Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Leeds in 2022/23. These differences are important because they show that the team can learn from past mistakes.
It also highlights why everything doesn’t have to be unexpected, regardless of the outcome.Last season Liverpool struggled to create and limit their opponents. For example, in the 3-0 defeat to Wolves, the Reds had nearly 60% possession and created 1.96 expected chances, but the hosts finished with 2.03. A closer look at the numbers shows that Jurgen Klopp’s side managed just one big chance despite having 22 attempts. In comparison, Wolves had 12 shots and 6 big chances.
Liverpool lost 3-1 to Brentford. They had 73% possession and an expected goals ratio of 2.03 from 16 attempts. The hosts had fewer shots (10) but had more shots on goal (7 vs. 6) and created more chances (3 vs. 4). The match against Nottingham Forest was a similar story.
The home team dominated possession. They ended the game with just 25% of possession. However, they had the same number of attempts as Liverpool (7), had a higher expected goals total (1.86 vs 1.66) and created more chances. (5-4). Leeds won 2-1 at Anfield despite having 31% possession.
They finished the game with fewer big chances (3 to 2), but had a slightly higher expected goals percentage (1.77 to 1.74). All these results showed some similarities. Liverpool dominated the ball but failed to dominate the space, making it a bit of a basketball game from start to finish.
The opposition created big chances at a staggering rate, with Liverpool attacking the goal but struggling to create anything of substance.It wasn’t against Luton. “Reds” had 74% of the ball. They had 24 shots on target to Luton’s eight and finished with more attempts on goal (6-5).
At Kenilworth Road, Liverpool created six big chances in front of the two hosts. Their expected goal chances vary between 2.85 and 3.5 depending on which model you look at, while Rob Edwards’ men have generated just 0.81 expected goal chances.
Klopp and his team briefly restricted the home team and opened up scoring opportunities. With a better finish and a bit of luck, these chances could have given Liverpool a big win. Darwin Nunes isn’t the only one who missed an opportunity.
Diogo Jota, Cody Gakpo and Mohamed Salah missed big chances and that rarely happens. Every forward misses a chance, but the entire offense rarely misses a big chance in a single game.
It was one of those days. But most importantly, it’s not just any old story. Liverpool won nothing in this match. They took all three points in this match.
