If the FA Cup is to be Erik ten Hag’s salvation at Manchester United, they’ll have to win it the hard way.
As the winds of change off the pitch blow through Old Trafford, it feels as if the Dutch coach is in one big job interview between now and May.
With the FA Cup remaining United’s one remaining hope of silverware, drawing Liverpool in the quarter-finals this weekend is far from ideal.
In contrast to their arch-rivals, Liverpool have one trophy in the bag and have a realistic chance of adding three more in Jurgen Klopp’s ultimate swansong.
The quality of Liverpool’s performance in last weekend’s title summit draw with Manchester City only served to highlight the current gulf in quality between them and United. So Ten Hag’s team – despite beating Liverpool at Old Trafford in last season’s Premier League and snatching a draw at Anfield in December – have plenty of things to worry about ahead of Sunday afternoon.
STEMMING THE SHOTS
United have allowed their opponents 467 shots on their goal this season in league action. Only Sheffield United, who are bottom of the table, have allowed more with 501.
Last weekend, struggling Everton out-shot United 23-15, the previous weekend Man City had 27 and it averages out over the season at 16.68 per game.
It’s happened so often that it’s clearly part of Ten Hag’s design rather than by accident.
After the 2-0 win over Everton, the boss spoke about the low quality of their chances, suggesting most were blocked off at source or easy to deal with.
But against Liverpool, such an approach has the potential to be catastrophic. At Anfield late last year, United somehow escaped with a 0-0 draw despite Liverpool enjoying 34 shots at their goal.
That can be put down as a rare off-day by their usually potent attack and there’s absolutely no chance Liverpool would be so profligate if they had so many opportunities on Sunday.
It all ties into the confusion over what Ten Hag is trying to achieve at United and what their philosophy is.
Does he want United to have control of games, dictating the flow and tempo through possession? Or does he want things more open and stretched to transition quickly and hurt teams on the break?
At the minute, they just seem to have zero control and be wide open anyway, riding their luck far too much.
Liverpool are certainly well placed to capitalise on that this time and bad memories of their 5-0 win at Old Trafford in the dying days of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s reign will send a shudder through United fans.
WORRIES OVER CASEMIRO
Usually, a five-time Champions League winner like Casemiro would be the just what you need in such a crunch game.
But the 32-year-old Brazilian has been far from his best all season. When not sidelined with injury, he’s looked sluggish in his movement and is giving the ball away worryingly often for someone of his class and experience.
Against Everton, he lost possession six times in the opening 20 minutes alone and at one point 18-year-old Kobbie Mainoo actually came over to offer reassurance.
If United man-mark in midfield, you can see an Alexis Mac Allister or Dominik Szoboszlai just breezing past Casemiro and Mainoo left with acres of turf to cover.
The Casemiro-Mainoo combination has been favoured of late. Much of it is by default, with Sofyan Amrabat and Christian Eriksen seeming to lack the physicality to cope.
With Scott McTominay’s more offensive qualities unlocked this season, there aren’t any more options in defensive midfield.
Ten Hag may err on the side of caution on Sunday by playing Casemiro and Mainoo, plus the legs of McTominay, who can cover when required from a slightly more advanced position.
But the sight of Casemiro on the teamsheet at 2.30pm on Sunday will fill many with trepidation, which is a sad state of affairs for such an accomplished player.
LACK OF FIREPOWER
How Ten Hag will hope and pray Rasmus Hojlund is back to fitness and available for Sunday.
The muscle injury that saw the Dane miss the last four games came at an especially cruel time given he’d scored eight in eight games since breaking his league duck against Aston Villa on Boxing Day.
We were beginning to see precisely why United paid £72million to sign him and they look far more toothless without him.
Two of the games he missed – against Fulham and Manchester City – ended up in defeats, while two penalties were needed to beat Everton. Casemiro headed their FA Cup winner at Nottingham Forest.
United have only scored 39 league goals this season, lower than everyone down to Crystal Palace in 14th and Hojlund is the only player in double figures as Marcus Rashford, Antony et al struggle.
Given that trying to play out from the back against Liverpool’s press is a recipe for disaster, United may try and utilise long diagonals looking for Rashford, Haaland and Alejandro Garnacho to get in behind Liverpool.
Hojlund not only has a physical edge and speed to make this effective, he has an end product as well.
His return would be most welcome but those around him need to capitalise on any moments that come their way too if United are to beat Liverpool.
STIFLING SALAH
Mohamed Salah will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing United, especially now he’s back to match fitness.
The Egyptian has 12 goals and four assists in 13 previous encounters with United. There isn’t an opponent he’s scored more often against.
Salah specials against United include a hat-trick in that aforementioned 5-0 win in 2021, plus a double in the 4-0 Anfield win later that season and two more in the 7-0 humiliation last year.
He even scored twice in a losing cause for Liverpool the last time this fixture was played in the FA Cup – a 3-2 United win in the 2020-21 fourth round played behind closed doors.
So it’s hardly the ideal time to come up against Salah, on 19 for the season, without a recognised left-back.
